Twice, again, tonight I picked up Queens and ran into Kings - stacked off both times. 'Nuff said!
I played 715 hands tonight, and here's the stat's on the Pocket Pairs - as they happened...
The figure at the beginning is the hand-number:
(w)=Won, (l)=Lost, ([k])=Lost to Kings, (*)=Flopped a Set, (f)=Folded pre-flop
#009 QQ x 1 (l[k])
#011 44 x 1 (w*)
#048 99 x 1 (l)
#088 88 x 1 (l)
#111 JJ x 1 (w)
#129 QQ x 2 (l)
#217 22 x 1 (l)
#246 99 x 2 (f*)
#264 KK x 1 (w)
#281 KK x 2 (w)
#303 22 x 2 (l)
#317 22 x 3 (w*)
#354 22 x 4 (w*)
#356 99 x 3 (l)
#374 33 x 1 (l)
#378 88 x 2 (l)
#384 22 x 5 (w)
#388 55 x 1 (l)
#397 88 x 3 (w)
#406 AA x 1 (w)
#412 44 x 2 (w)
#422 QQ x 3 (w)
#429 66 x 1 (l)
#438 55 x 2 (w)
#451 88 x 4 (w*)
#455 55 x 3 (l)
#469 JJ x 2 (l)
#470 JJ x 3 (w)
#509 22 x 6 (l)
#531 55 x 3 (l)
#537 JJ x 4 (l)
#541 QQ x 4 (l[k])
#561 44 x 3 (f)
#631 66 x 2 (w)
#640 88 x 5 (f)
#643 44 x 4 (f)
#667 QQ x 5 (w)
#677 AA x 2 (w)
#693 55 x 4 (l)
#698 77 x 1 (w)
#701 AA x 3 (w)
#711 33 x 2 (w)
#714 22 x 7 (l)
So, I picked up 43 pocket pairs during the session. That's 1 every 16.7 hands - as near as can be to the statistical average. Of those hands I folded 4 pre-flop. From the 39 pairs I saw the flop with I made a set 4 times. That's only once in every 9.75 hands, and the average should be once in every 8.7, so it's not too far below.
However, that's not the whole story - I mis-clicked on hand #246, when I was dealt pocket 9's and would have hit a set on that flop, if I had called (as I intended to).
So, overall, 43 total pocket pairs, and including the pre-flop folds, I would have hit 5 sets. That's an average of 8.6, so is virtually spot on - I can have no real complaints tonight, except for the fact that I made diddly-squat when I did make the sets, as I got no customers on any of them - seriously, made the absolute minimum when I had the goods.
When you put this up against the fact that twice tonight I ended up getting it all-in pre-flop with pocket Queens, and both times ran into Kings is where I lost the bulk of my stack. My total buy-in for the evening amounted to $14.00, and I cashed out (beleaguered) with a shade over $7.00, Probably my biggest losing session in a long time.
There was some other really nasty hands, along the way, that cost me severely. Like 3 hands in quick succession where I picked up A-J and lost to A-K (blind on blind) another with A-Q which met another A-K and one with A-10 that ran into A-J (where I flopped top-pair and the nut flush draw and stacked off when the flush did not arrive). At the time I had a stack of about $10 (after reloading with $5.00 and building it up), those 3 hands, I would say in the space of 10-15 hands, bumped me back down to $3.00, and I had to work it back up to $7.00 before I called it quits.
It really should not be this hard to win at least a couple of these hands. You would think after playing 715 hands that once or twice I might come up against an opponent with just less of a hand than me, but I am seriously getting paranoid and it is affecting my play. Every hand I am convinced I am beat - because usually I am.
I picked up Aces 3 times this session, and only once did it go down to the river, and the boards were as wet as you could imagine. One saw a flop of T-J-Q of hearts, and I had Ac-As, the other guy was calling all my bets and shoved on the river - he had T-8 (flopped bottom pair and was chasing a straight and a flush with just the 8h). I'm amazed, the way I am running, that he didn't get there.
Another time I had Pocket Jacks and made a set on the turn, but my opponent had made a straight which improved to a flush, on the river, and I lost half my stack.
I just hope this run comes to an end very soon and I have a good session to get some of my losses back.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Addendum... More about pocket pairs
Again, this evening, I was tracking my pocket pairs. In 648 hands this is what I saw:
(w = won, l = lost, ^ = lost to Aces, * = flopped a set, f = folded pre-flop, kk = lost to Kings)
AA x 3 (w-w-w)
KK x 1 (l^)
QQ x 4 (l^-w-l[kk]-w)
JJ x 3 (w-l-w)
99 x 2 (w-w*)
88 x 3 (w*-l-f)
77 x 3 (l-l-w)
66 x 1 (w)
55 x 5 (f*-l*-l-l-l)
44 x 1 (w)
33 x 2 (l-l)
22 x 3 (f-l-f)
So, tonight I was dealt 31 pocket pairs from 648 hands. Statistics state I should have seen about 38 pairs, so this was quite a bit below average.
Of the 31 pairs I folded 4 of them pre-flop. So saw a flop with 27 pairs and should have expected to hit a set just over 3 times (3.1). I did, indeed, see 3 sets during the evening, so bang on average. But, I would have hit a set with one of the pairs of 5's that I folded, so if you count all the hands it would have been 4 from 31, which is above the average of 3.6.
The killer thing tonight was that I got Kings once, and ran into Aces. On two of the four occasions I got Queens I ran into Aces again, and Kings the other time. With cold decks like this it's pretty difficult not to go completely broke.
I won hands with 12 of the 27 flops that I saw, and 10 of those were with 8's or above (but the final one was where I hit a set with 6's). So it looks like I should only really play pocket 8's or above, but that being the case I would never have made most of my cash back on the last hand with the 6's.
(w = won, l = lost, ^ = lost to Aces, * = flopped a set, f = folded pre-flop, kk = lost to Kings)
AA x 3 (w-w-w)
KK x 1 (l^)
QQ x 4 (l^-w-l[kk]-w)
JJ x 3 (w-l-w)
99 x 2 (w-w*)
88 x 3 (w*-l-f)
77 x 3 (l-l-w)
66 x 1 (w)
55 x 5 (f*-l*-l-l-l)
44 x 1 (w)
33 x 2 (l-l)
22 x 3 (f-l-f)
So, tonight I was dealt 31 pocket pairs from 648 hands. Statistics state I should have seen about 38 pairs, so this was quite a bit below average.
Of the 31 pairs I folded 4 of them pre-flop. So saw a flop with 27 pairs and should have expected to hit a set just over 3 times (3.1). I did, indeed, see 3 sets during the evening, so bang on average. But, I would have hit a set with one of the pairs of 5's that I folded, so if you count all the hands it would have been 4 from 31, which is above the average of 3.6.
The killer thing tonight was that I got Kings once, and ran into Aces. On two of the four occasions I got Queens I ran into Aces again, and Kings the other time. With cold decks like this it's pretty difficult not to go completely broke.
I won hands with 12 of the 27 flops that I saw, and 10 of those were with 8's or above (but the final one was where I hit a set with 6's). So it looks like I should only really play pocket 8's or above, but that being the case I would never have made most of my cash back on the last hand with the 6's.
What an horrendous night, until...
I've had some topsy-turvy sessions in the past, but I don't remember so many cold decks and reversals in a single session before.
It all started when I folded the very first hand:
Hand #001:
I'm in the SB with As-Js and there is a raise from mid-position and a re-raise from the button - so I decide I don't want to go broke this early and lay it down. I watch the hand play out and the early position raiser flat calls. The flop is Ac-8c-8h and they both check it down, turning up KK and QQ respectively. I could have made a nice profit early on, if I wasn't such a nit.
Hand #007
Just a few hands later I pick up Pocket Queens in mid-position. I standard raise, and 1 opponent 3-bets. I call and the flop is Js-3h-9h. I check, so does he. The turn is the 9s - I don't believe he would 3-bet pre-flop with a 9, so I decide to lead. He raises, and I push. He calls and, of course, turns up Aces.
Thankfully he didn't have me completely covered, but I've done more than half my stack.
Hand #013:
I'm in the BB with pocket 5's and just want to see a cheap flop. No such luck. There's a raise from the button and the SB calls. The flop is 3h-5c-Qc, and I would have hit my set. I watch as the two guys go to war as the SB turns up Kd-Qh for a flopped top-pair, against the button's pocket Kings.
Another hand I would have scooped if I had played.
Now I am really miffed, and cursing missed opportunities. If I had played this and the first hands I probably would have called it a night and what was to come would have been avoided.
Hand #045
I pick up the pocket 5's again, in the cut-off and limp. The BB raises and I make the call. Flop is 5d-8d-Kd - a flopped set, but a flushing board. He leads out and he only has about $1.00 behind, so I put him all-in and he calls, with Qd-8c, middle pair and the 2nd nut flush draw.
Of course, the 9d hits the turn and my only outs are a paired board, which doesn't happen.
It's sick that I fold two hands earlier that would have scooped decent pots, and I end up getting out-drawn by a sick Q-8.
Hand #102
This time, with pocket 8's from the cut-off I see a flop of 8d-7h-6d against 1 opponent. It couldn't be wetter! I lead, he folds, no profit.
Story of my life is when I hit something I cannot find a customer or the board is so scary that it kills the action.
Hand #164
I've got pocket Tens, in the hijack and limp. It's raised from the button and I call. The flop is 7s-As-4h. I check and so does he. Now, I can't believe he would have checked any Ace on a flush-drawing board, so I put him on K-Q or a small pocket pair.
The turn is the 9h and this time I lead out. He instantly raises, which makes me slightly suspicious, but now I put him on KQ of hearts. The river is the 3c and I put out a blocker bet of $0.50 which is min-raised. A value bet, if ever I saw one - I begrudgingly call, expecting to see Aces, but instead it's pocket 9's, for a turned set. Lucky git - a 2-outer.
Now I am absolutely fuming.
Hand #229
Things go along without much incident for about 60 hands, when I pick up the Cowboys from the cut-off. I standard min-raise and this is min-re-raised from the SB. Being a bit tilty, I decide to shove, as I cannot believe he has Aces. He calls, he has Aces.
First, my QQ runs into AA, then my TT runs into 99 who turns the set, now my KK runs into AA again. What have I done to anger the poker gods?
Hand #338
I've reloaded and been card-dead for about 100 hands. I limp from UTG+1 with Ac-8c, trying to see a cheap flop. It comes down Js-5c-9c. The BB leads into me and I have had enough. With only about $3.00 left I decide to shove - I am no worse than 50-50 against any hand.
He calls with Ad-9d, for 2nd pair and no draw!! Seriously, I know he had a decent stack, but I couldn't believe it. I could have been shoving with a set, or Aces.
Needless to say, my flush doesn't materialise and I've gone bust for the 3rd time this evening.
Hand #364
I pick up pocket 9's UTG and limp (as I do). There's a raise from mid-position and I call. The flop comes down Ah-Ac-9s against 1 opponent. I check and he fires out $1.00, just under the pot size. I am praying he has an Ace, so I wait as long as I can and shove. He insta-folds.
No idea what he actually had, but it was probably something like QQ or JJ. I got a small amount, but could not maximize.
Hand #373
I pick up the Ladies, UTG, and make the standard 3xBB raise. This is flat-called in mid-position and the two of us see a 9c-3h-9d flop. I lead and he re-raises. I've had enough and shove...no way I've run into a bigger pair, again. Wrong, he calls with KK.
That's 3 times I've run into an overpair with QQ or KK and it's really becoming annoying.
Hand #402
Pocket Jack, this time, in the SB. It's folded round and the button raises. I decide to re-raise in case he is stealing, and he calls. The board is all undercards, 3c-6d-9c. I check and he bets, I re-raise and he calls. The turn is 7h and the board is getting a bit straighty for my liking, so I lead out for $1.00 and he calls again. It's getting very expensive if he is chasing a draw, and he has only left himself $1.80 back. The river is 4c and now I am getting worried.
He shoves and I have to make a decision - was he floating? Does he have an overpair?
The pot is too big to fold and I make the call. Kh-Qd, for no draw whatsoever, just overcards.
It's my biggest pot of the night and I am back on track to try and recover some of my losses.
Hand #449
At this stage my buy-in's have cost me $19.00 and my stack is about $9.00. I pick up As-Td in the small blind and call a min-raise from UTG. We see a Th-Kd-Tc board and I need to get the maximum. I check and he leads into me, I re-raise and he shoves. Just what I wanted, I insta-call. He's got Kc-Jc. The turn is a safe 3d, so no straight or flush draws materialise, I just need to fade a 2-outer, only one of the two remaining Kings is good enough.
I'm gobsmacked as the Kh hits the river. Can this night get any worse?
I'm busted back down to about $6.50.
Hand #500
This was the 3rd time I'd seen the Pocket Rockets this evening and on both previous occasions I had raised and everyone folded. This time I re-raised an early position bet and it was called.
The flop was 8d-9s-6s. Straighty and flushy I decide to lead out. This is just flat-called. The turn is the 6h. I bet again and this is just flatted. The river is the Ac, now I know I am golden, and I bet about $1.00. This is (eventually) called, and he turns up Qc-Qd.
How come on a board full of undercards he cannot find a shove - how does all the money not end up in the middle? I've done my stack twice this evening, with QQ running into both KK and AA - how come he loses the minimum?
Hand #597
Not a big hand, just posted this as it was the only time in the entire night that I completed a flush. It took 597 hands.
Hand #639
This hand is a prime example of how, when I have the nuts, the board runs out so scary that I am either losing, or the action is completely killed.
I've got 8c-9c and call a small mid-position raise, from the cut-off. The flop is 7d-5s-As.
He leads out for about 2/3 pot and I tank with just a gut-shot. I decide it's a good spot to float, and if a 3rd spade comes down I might be able to take it away. It's slightly better, as the 6d hits me in the gut and I make my straight. Now, I am in the position where I feel I have led my opponent to believe that I was chasing a flush. He checks and so do I, keeping up appearances.
The river is just about the worst possible card - 8d. This puts the flush and 4-to-a-straight out there. He checks and so do I, believing I am only going to get called by a better hand.
He had a decent Ace and I could have made a pretty good value bet on the river if the 8d hadn't completely killed the action. This seems to be a constant theme when I make decent hands.
Hand #648
It took about 2 hours and 648 hands before I finally got it all in ahead, got called, and won.
I've got pocket 6's UTG and limp. This is raised to 4xBB from mid-pos and I make the call.
Ts-Ah-6s is the flop and I have to make the most of this. I check and he bets just under the pot.
I re-raise about 3x his bet and he tanks for a while before shoving. I make the quick call.
What I don't want to see is any flush draw - and I don't, it's Ad-Kd and he is miles behind.
It's going to take runner-runner for me to lose this one. No sweat, he's drawing dead when the 4c hits the turn and I can breathe a sigh of relief.
I finally got out of the session with $15.25, and my loss was only $3.75. At one point I was down over $16.00. What I want to know is why it took over 600 hands for me to find a decent pot? Why can't this happen 40-50 hands in and I can quit after half an hour with a profit, rather than chasing my tail all the time?
It all started when I folded the very first hand:
Hand #001:
I'm in the SB with As-Js and there is a raise from mid-position and a re-raise from the button - so I decide I don't want to go broke this early and lay it down. I watch the hand play out and the early position raiser flat calls. The flop is Ac-8c-8h and they both check it down, turning up KK and QQ respectively. I could have made a nice profit early on, if I wasn't such a nit.
Hand #007Just a few hands later I pick up Pocket Queens in mid-position. I standard raise, and 1 opponent 3-bets. I call and the flop is Js-3h-9h. I check, so does he. The turn is the 9s - I don't believe he would 3-bet pre-flop with a 9, so I decide to lead. He raises, and I push. He calls and, of course, turns up Aces.
Thankfully he didn't have me completely covered, but I've done more than half my stack.
Hand #013:
I'm in the BB with pocket 5's and just want to see a cheap flop. No such luck. There's a raise from the button and the SB calls. The flop is 3h-5c-Qc, and I would have hit my set. I watch as the two guys go to war as the SB turns up Kd-Qh for a flopped top-pair, against the button's pocket Kings.
Another hand I would have scooped if I had played.
Now I am really miffed, and cursing missed opportunities. If I had played this and the first hands I probably would have called it a night and what was to come would have been avoided.
Hand #045
I pick up the pocket 5's again, in the cut-off and limp. The BB raises and I make the call. Flop is 5d-8d-Kd - a flopped set, but a flushing board. He leads out and he only has about $1.00 behind, so I put him all-in and he calls, with Qd-8c, middle pair and the 2nd nut flush draw.
Of course, the 9d hits the turn and my only outs are a paired board, which doesn't happen.
It's sick that I fold two hands earlier that would have scooped decent pots, and I end up getting out-drawn by a sick Q-8.
Hand #102
This time, with pocket 8's from the cut-off I see a flop of 8d-7h-6d against 1 opponent. It couldn't be wetter! I lead, he folds, no profit.
Story of my life is when I hit something I cannot find a customer or the board is so scary that it kills the action.
Hand #164
I've got pocket Tens, in the hijack and limp. It's raised from the button and I call. The flop is 7s-As-4h. I check and so does he. Now, I can't believe he would have checked any Ace on a flush-drawing board, so I put him on K-Q or a small pocket pair.
The turn is the 9h and this time I lead out. He instantly raises, which makes me slightly suspicious, but now I put him on KQ of hearts. The river is the 3c and I put out a blocker bet of $0.50 which is min-raised. A value bet, if ever I saw one - I begrudgingly call, expecting to see Aces, but instead it's pocket 9's, for a turned set. Lucky git - a 2-outer.
Now I am absolutely fuming.
Hand #229
Things go along without much incident for about 60 hands, when I pick up the Cowboys from the cut-off. I standard min-raise and this is min-re-raised from the SB. Being a bit tilty, I decide to shove, as I cannot believe he has Aces. He calls, he has Aces.
First, my QQ runs into AA, then my TT runs into 99 who turns the set, now my KK runs into AA again. What have I done to anger the poker gods?
Hand #338
I've reloaded and been card-dead for about 100 hands. I limp from UTG+1 with Ac-8c, trying to see a cheap flop. It comes down Js-5c-9c. The BB leads into me and I have had enough. With only about $3.00 left I decide to shove - I am no worse than 50-50 against any hand.
He calls with Ad-9d, for 2nd pair and no draw!! Seriously, I know he had a decent stack, but I couldn't believe it. I could have been shoving with a set, or Aces.
Needless to say, my flush doesn't materialise and I've gone bust for the 3rd time this evening.
Hand #364
I pick up pocket 9's UTG and limp (as I do). There's a raise from mid-position and I call. The flop comes down Ah-Ac-9s against 1 opponent. I check and he fires out $1.00, just under the pot size. I am praying he has an Ace, so I wait as long as I can and shove. He insta-folds.
No idea what he actually had, but it was probably something like QQ or JJ. I got a small amount, but could not maximize.Hand #373
I pick up the Ladies, UTG, and make the standard 3xBB raise. This is flat-called in mid-position and the two of us see a 9c-3h-9d flop. I lead and he re-raises. I've had enough and shove...no way I've run into a bigger pair, again. Wrong, he calls with KK.
That's 3 times I've run into an overpair with QQ or KK and it's really becoming annoying.
Hand #402
Pocket Jack, this time, in the SB. It's folded round and the button raises. I decide to re-raise in case he is stealing, and he calls. The board is all undercards, 3c-6d-9c. I check and he bets, I re-raise and he calls. The turn is 7h and the board is getting a bit straighty for my liking, so I lead out for $1.00 and he calls again. It's getting very expensive if he is chasing a draw, and he has only left himself $1.80 back. The river is 4c and now I am getting worried.
He shoves and I have to make a decision - was he floating? Does he have an overpair?
The pot is too big to fold and I make the call. Kh-Qd, for no draw whatsoever, just overcards.
It's my biggest pot of the night and I am back on track to try and recover some of my losses.
Hand #449
At this stage my buy-in's have cost me $19.00 and my stack is about $9.00. I pick up As-Td in the small blind and call a min-raise from UTG. We see a Th-Kd-Tc board and I need to get the maximum. I check and he leads into me, I re-raise and he shoves. Just what I wanted, I insta-call. He's got Kc-Jc. The turn is a safe 3d, so no straight or flush draws materialise, I just need to fade a 2-outer, only one of the two remaining Kings is good enough.
I'm gobsmacked as the Kh hits the river. Can this night get any worse?
I'm busted back down to about $6.50.Hand #500
This was the 3rd time I'd seen the Pocket Rockets this evening and on both previous occasions I had raised and everyone folded. This time I re-raised an early position bet and it was called.
The flop was 8d-9s-6s. Straighty and flushy I decide to lead out. This is just flat-called. The turn is the 6h. I bet again and this is just flatted. The river is the Ac, now I know I am golden, and I bet about $1.00. This is (eventually) called, and he turns up Qc-Qd.
How come on a board full of undercards he cannot find a shove - how does all the money not end up in the middle? I've done my stack twice this evening, with QQ running into both KK and AA - how come he loses the minimum?
Hand #597
Not a big hand, just posted this as it was the only time in the entire night that I completed a flush. It took 597 hands.
Hand #639
This hand is a prime example of how, when I have the nuts, the board runs out so scary that I am either losing, or the action is completely killed.
I've got 8c-9c and call a small mid-position raise, from the cut-off. The flop is 7d-5s-As.
He leads out for about 2/3 pot and I tank with just a gut-shot. I decide it's a good spot to float, and if a 3rd spade comes down I might be able to take it away. It's slightly better, as the 6d hits me in the gut and I make my straight. Now, I am in the position where I feel I have led my opponent to believe that I was chasing a flush. He checks and so do I, keeping up appearances.
The river is just about the worst possible card - 8d. This puts the flush and 4-to-a-straight out there. He checks and so do I, believing I am only going to get called by a better hand.
He had a decent Ace and I could have made a pretty good value bet on the river if the 8d hadn't completely killed the action. This seems to be a constant theme when I make decent hands.
Hand #648
It took about 2 hours and 648 hands before I finally got it all in ahead, got called, and won.
I've got pocket 6's UTG and limp. This is raised to 4xBB from mid-pos and I make the call.
Ts-Ah-6s is the flop and I have to make the most of this. I check and he bets just under the pot.
I re-raise about 3x his bet and he tanks for a while before shoving. I make the quick call.
What I don't want to see is any flush draw - and I don't, it's Ad-Kd and he is miles behind.
It's going to take runner-runner for me to lose this one. No sweat, he's drawing dead when the 4c hits the turn and I can breathe a sigh of relief.
I finally got out of the session with $15.25, and my loss was only $3.75. At one point I was down over $16.00. What I want to know is why it took over 600 hands for me to find a decent pot? Why can't this happen 40-50 hands in and I can quit after half an hour with a profit, rather than chasing my tail all the time?
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Got out of jail, in the end.
Another frustrating night of Rush Poker - still monitoring those pocket pairs!
I played 355 hands, and this is what I saw
(w = won hand, l = lost hand, f = folded pre-flop, * = hit a set on the flop)
KK x 3 (w-w-w)
QQ x 4 (w*-w*-w-w)
JJ x 2 (w-l)
TT x 2 (l-l)
99 x 1 (l)
88 x 3 (w-w-l)
55 x 3 (w-l-f)
44 x 4 (f-w-l-l)
22 x 2 (l-l)
As you can see, I picked up 24 pocket pairs, from 355 hands. That's an average of 1 in every 14.8 hands (better than the average of 1 in every 17).
I twice folded pre-flop (to big raises/re-raises), so saw 22 flops and hit a set on 2 occasions - both with pocket Queens (in fact, I flopped a boat with the first one, and got no action, and the second time I had Queens I turned a boat full of Jacks, and only got paid the minimum from A-J, as the river put a possible flush on the board).
So, 2 out of 22 flops is equal to 1 set in every 11 pairs, still a bit below the average of 1 in every 8.7 times, but maybe not as bad as last night.
I had been frustrated for the first 354 hands and had to re-load several times, such that my initial $5.00 turned into $10.00 very quickly. However, the last hand was my get out of jail hand. I had Pocket Kings in the BB and there were 4 limpers, so I made it $0.35 to go, and still picked up 3 callers.
The flop was 5c-Qd-Js. I was about to bet out, and paused, deciding to check-raise any bet. P1 makes it $0.50 (just over 1/3 pot) and this is quickly called by P2. P3 folds, and it's back round to me. The pot is now $2.36 and they have $1.99 and $2.78 back, respectively. I decide there are too many draws out there so I decide to put them both all-in, with a $3.45 bet. I am expecting one of them to have top-pair and the other to have a draw, so I am hoping for one call - I get two.
P1 has 10-J, for middle pair and P2 has K-J, same again with a better kicker. So, I now have to fade another Jack, or a Ten. The turn is relief, as the Kc lands, giving me the set. P2 is drawing dead, and I now have to fade an Ace on the river (that would have been criminal). It's the 5d (improving me to a house). I scooped the $9.80 pot to get myself back into profit for the evening.
That's when I decided to call it a night. Again, I was ahead of the average for pocket pairs dealt, but behind the average for sets seen on the flop. One night it'll all come together and I might make a few bob - 'til then I'll keep grinding.
I played 355 hands, and this is what I saw
(w = won hand, l = lost hand, f = folded pre-flop, * = hit a set on the flop)
KK x 3 (w-w-w)
QQ x 4 (w*-w*-w-w)
JJ x 2 (w-l)
TT x 2 (l-l)
99 x 1 (l)
88 x 3 (w-w-l)
55 x 3 (w-l-f)
44 x 4 (f-w-l-l)
22 x 2 (l-l)
As you can see, I picked up 24 pocket pairs, from 355 hands. That's an average of 1 in every 14.8 hands (better than the average of 1 in every 17).
I twice folded pre-flop (to big raises/re-raises), so saw 22 flops and hit a set on 2 occasions - both with pocket Queens (in fact, I flopped a boat with the first one, and got no action, and the second time I had Queens I turned a boat full of Jacks, and only got paid the minimum from A-J, as the river put a possible flush on the board).
So, 2 out of 22 flops is equal to 1 set in every 11 pairs, still a bit below the average of 1 in every 8.7 times, but maybe not as bad as last night.
I had been frustrated for the first 354 hands and had to re-load several times, such that my initial $5.00 turned into $10.00 very quickly. However, the last hand was my get out of jail hand. I had Pocket Kings in the BB and there were 4 limpers, so I made it $0.35 to go, and still picked up 3 callers.
The flop was 5c-Qd-Js. I was about to bet out, and paused, deciding to check-raise any bet. P1 makes it $0.50 (just over 1/3 pot) and this is quickly called by P2. P3 folds, and it's back round to me. The pot is now $2.36 and they have $1.99 and $2.78 back, respectively. I decide there are too many draws out there so I decide to put them both all-in, with a $3.45 bet. I am expecting one of them to have top-pair and the other to have a draw, so I am hoping for one call - I get two.
P1 has 10-J, for middle pair and P2 has K-J, same again with a better kicker. So, I now have to fade another Jack, or a Ten. The turn is relief, as the Kc lands, giving me the set. P2 is drawing dead, and I now have to fade an Ace on the river (that would have been criminal). It's the 5d (improving me to a house). I scooped the $9.80 pot to get myself back into profit for the evening.
That's when I decided to call it a night. Again, I was ahead of the average for pocket pairs dealt, but behind the average for sets seen on the flop. One night it'll all come together and I might make a few bob - 'til then I'll keep grinding.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Pocket Pairs
Last night I wrote about the statistical anomaly that was getting dealt pocket 10's 5 times in 84 hands.
Tonight I've played 309 hands, and these are the pairs that I have had:
AA x 1
KK x 1
QQ x 1
JJ x 1
TT x 2
99 x 1
88 x 2
66 x 2
55 x 1
44 x 4
33 x 1
22 x 4
That's a total of 21 sets of pocket pairs. Given that a pocket pair is dealt every 17 hands, I should have expected to see 18 pairs in my hole cards - so this is only slightly above average.
However, once you have been dealt a pair, you expect to improve to a set, on the flop, one in every 9 times you have a pocket pair (actual odds are 77/10). So, for my 21 sets of pocket pairs I could have easily expected to hit twice, and optimistically have expected to catch three-times.
Not a sniff, in the 21 times I have had a pocket pair I saw 18 flops (folded Deuces twice, and got a walk with Kings) and didn't hit a single set.
Also, you would expect a reasonably even spread of the pairs hit, but 17 out of the 21 pairs were 10's or below. I only had AA, KK, QQ or JJ once each and was dealt Deuces and Fours 4 times each and Sixes, Eights and Tens twice each - a bit lop-sided.
Maybe 309 hands is not a big enough sample, but you have to feel pretty aggrieved to be defying the odds so badly.
*FINAL UPDATE*
I played a total of 610 hands:
AA x 3
KK x 1
QQ x 4
JJ x 1
TT x 4
99 x 2
88 x 3
77 x 3
66 x 6
55 x 2
44 x 4
33 x 2
22 x 4
I saw a total of 39 pocket pairs (and additional 18) - when statistics say 36 is about right, so still just above average.
I saw the flop with 16 of the 18 recent pairs (got a walk with QQ and folded 66 pre), making a total of 34 flops with a pocket pair and I finally hit a set with pocket 6's on hand 515.
That's 1 set on 34 flops with a pocket pair - almost 4 x the average.
Realistically, I should have expected to see a set a minimum of 4 times from 34 flops - so just 1 is an atrocious return; no wonder I couldn't make any money this evening.
I did get Aces 3 times, and won every pot I was in with them - I also won the pot with the 6's where I eventually made a set. I got a walk with Kings and once with Queens, but lost every other pot I was in with a pair. That's 33 flops, probably 13 of them I flatted and the other 20 were calls, so that's approximately $0.65 in limps and at least $3.00 in calls - so my action with pocket pairs cost me in the region of $3.65 (probably more, as I can remember continuing after the flop with a couple).
I ended the session $3.06 down - so if I had not bothered calling with anything less than QQ, I would probably have made a small profit. Something to think about!
Tonight I've played 309 hands, and these are the pairs that I have had:
AA x 1
KK x 1
QQ x 1
JJ x 1
TT x 2
99 x 1
88 x 2
66 x 2
55 x 1
44 x 4
33 x 1
22 x 4
That's a total of 21 sets of pocket pairs. Given that a pocket pair is dealt every 17 hands, I should have expected to see 18 pairs in my hole cards - so this is only slightly above average.
However, once you have been dealt a pair, you expect to improve to a set, on the flop, one in every 9 times you have a pocket pair (actual odds are 77/10). So, for my 21 sets of pocket pairs I could have easily expected to hit twice, and optimistically have expected to catch three-times.
Not a sniff, in the 21 times I have had a pocket pair I saw 18 flops (folded Deuces twice, and got a walk with Kings) and didn't hit a single set.
Also, you would expect a reasonably even spread of the pairs hit, but 17 out of the 21 pairs were 10's or below. I only had AA, KK, QQ or JJ once each and was dealt Deuces and Fours 4 times each and Sixes, Eights and Tens twice each - a bit lop-sided.
Maybe 309 hands is not a big enough sample, but you have to feel pretty aggrieved to be defying the odds so badly.
*FINAL UPDATE*
I played a total of 610 hands:
AA x 3
KK x 1
QQ x 4
JJ x 1
TT x 4
99 x 2
88 x 3
77 x 3
66 x 6
55 x 2
44 x 4
33 x 2
22 x 4
I saw a total of 39 pocket pairs (and additional 18) - when statistics say 36 is about right, so still just above average.
I saw the flop with 16 of the 18 recent pairs (got a walk with QQ and folded 66 pre), making a total of 34 flops with a pocket pair and I finally hit a set with pocket 6's on hand 515.
That's 1 set on 34 flops with a pocket pair - almost 4 x the average.
Realistically, I should have expected to see a set a minimum of 4 times from 34 flops - so just 1 is an atrocious return; no wonder I couldn't make any money this evening.
I did get Aces 3 times, and won every pot I was in with them - I also won the pot with the 6's where I eventually made a set. I got a walk with Kings and once with Queens, but lost every other pot I was in with a pair. That's 33 flops, probably 13 of them I flatted and the other 20 were calls, so that's approximately $0.65 in limps and at least $3.00 in calls - so my action with pocket pairs cost me in the region of $3.65 (probably more, as I can remember continuing after the flop with a couple).
I ended the session $3.06 down - so if I had not bothered calling with anything less than QQ, I would probably have made a small profit. Something to think about!
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Statistical anomoly
Playing Rush poker, just stopped to post this:
So far I have seen 85 hands and have been dealt the following pocket pairs:
Pocket 7's = 1 time
Pocket Aces = 2 times
Pocket 10's = 5 times
Pocket 2's = 1 time
Pocket 4's = 1 time
The odds of being dealt any pocket pair are 16/1, so you should expect to see one, on average, once in every 17 hands. So, from 85 hands it is expected that I would have seen 5 pocket pairs - I've seen 10, that's double the average.
The odds on being dealt any particular pocket pair are 220/1, so you should expect to see Aces once in every 221 hands - I picked them up twice in the space of 5 hands; seeing Aces twice in the 85 hands I've played is more than 5x the statistical probability.
Now, to pick up pocket 10's 5 times you would have expected to have been through something like 1,100 hands - so the chances of hitting them 5 times in 85 hands is 13x the statistical probability.
I think I should quit while I am ahead, as I have obviously had all my luck from the dealer and could go any number of hands before I see another.
So far I have seen 85 hands and have been dealt the following pocket pairs:
Pocket 7's = 1 time
Pocket Aces = 2 times
Pocket 10's = 5 times
Pocket 2's = 1 time
Pocket 4's = 1 time
The odds of being dealt any pocket pair are 16/1, so you should expect to see one, on average, once in every 17 hands. So, from 85 hands it is expected that I would have seen 5 pocket pairs - I've seen 10, that's double the average.
The odds on being dealt any particular pocket pair are 220/1, so you should expect to see Aces once in every 221 hands - I picked them up twice in the space of 5 hands; seeing Aces twice in the 85 hands I've played is more than 5x the statistical probability.
Now, to pick up pocket 10's 5 times you would have expected to have been through something like 1,100 hands - so the chances of hitting them 5 times in 85 hands is 13x the statistical probability.
I think I should quit while I am ahead, as I have obviously had all my luck from the dealer and could go any number of hands before I see another.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Avoiding cold-deck situations
Hand 17:
I wasn't involved in this hand for very long, but thought I would post it as an example of the kind of 'ice' cold decks that can occur on Full Tilt, especially in Rush.
I raise to $0.15, UTG+1, with pocket Tens. This is 3-bet to $0.45 at +2 and flatted by the Button, so I make the call hoping that if I hit a set I could be golden. Flop [9d 7h 2h] and I am first to act. I check and +2 bets the pot, $1.42, the Button instantly shoves for $2.24 and it's pretty obvious that even though I have an overpair, I am in bad shape, so I fold. +2 takes no time to call for the extra $0.82. It's AA v QQ and I am breathing a sigh of relief that I got out of dodge.
These are the kind of pitfalls you have to avoid if you don't want to go constantly broke. It's easy to fold the Tens if there are a couple of overcards, but when you have an overpair you have to know that with a raise and re-raise that you are up against a bigger pair, or a set.
Hand 71:
This is an example of how sick this game can be. I pick up pocket 9's in the cut-off and there is only one limper pre-flop. Flop [Qh 7s 8c] and it goes check-check. Turn [9s] completes my set, but puts a potential straight out there, It's checked to me and bet $0.10 and get quickly called. The river [Tc] also adds potential flushes to the equation. He only has $0.19 left and shoves it into the middle. I am convinced I am beat, but for only $0.19 I make the call just to see how bad a beat it is and he turns up Kc 6c to win the hand with the idiot end of the straight.
Hand 81:
This is an example of how flops and boards can completely kill the action and even having hit a set on the river I cannot even bet for value.
Hand 144:
Another 'cold deck' scenario that I managed to extricate myself from, post flop. I'd been dealt AK several times in this session, and on each occasion I had raised pre-flop and everyone had folded. This it was in the BB and there had been a raise and two calls before I flatted. The flop [8s Tc 6c] brought a pot sized bet ($0.68) and a call before it got to me. I smelled something fishy, and with only overcards and no draw I gave up the hand. The initial raiser on flat called to see a 7h on the turn. This was now 4 to a straight and with two clubs already on board, it was looking a bit scary.
The initial raiser then shoves his remaining stack ($1.86) into the middle and it goes fold-call with them turning up Ah-Ad and Ac-4c respectively. It's amazing that people will get it in so far behind on the turn, and even more frustrating that I watched the Aces hold up (Js on the river), when normally if I am in that situation the club always comes on the river.
Hand 194:
I'd been dealt 10's more than my fair share of times this evening, and it seemed like every time I did there was a bigger hand out there (such as in hand 17, earlier). Again, there was a sizeable raise before it got to me and I made the call and the blinds also come along. This time I hit the set on the flop [Tc 7c Kh], however you can never be sure of even being ahead at this stage - all I can think is he's got pocket Kings. He bets out $0.35, just under the pot size, and normally my conservative play tells me to flat call - but I decided to throw caution to the wind and raise it to $1.10, especially as there are still 2 players to act behind me. The both fold and it comes back to the initial raiser - who now makes it $3.98, putting me all-in. At worst, I think he has AK possibly of Clubs, but he actually turns up Kd-Qh. I am delighted not to be up against the flush draw, or 2-pair, so any beat will have to be runner-runner. The Jd on the turn is a sweat card and he now has any 9 or any Ace to make a straight. Surely it cannot happen! It doesn't, the river is 5h and I've doubled up. It's been a very frustrating evening up 'til then.
Hand 288:
I only include this hand because it is a direct opposite of how I normally play. I had AK (again) in late position (hijack) and made my standard raise $0.15, this is 3-bet to $0.45 by the SB. Now, the SB is probably the worst position in poker - you are out of position against every other spot on the table, so 3-betting from the SB usually means a pretty decent hand, or a pretty poor player. Normally I would flat call and use my position to try and win post-flop, but this time I decided that I'd been on a decent run and he could be doing this with a medium pair, or even A-Q, so since he only had about $1.60 behind I decide to set him all-in and take my chances.
He calls and shows Qc-Qd and it is the classic race. The board runs out [7h 5c 5d] followed by [6d] on the turn, and I sigh at the prospect of losing another race (every time I have KK or QQ and all the money ends up in the middle it's against an Ace, and there's always one on the flop). However, the saviour comes on the river - [Ah]. Not an elegant way of making money, but after some of the reverses I've suffered recently I will happily take it.
I wasn't involved in this hand for very long, but thought I would post it as an example of the kind of 'ice' cold decks that can occur on Full Tilt, especially in Rush.
I raise to $0.15, UTG+1, with pocket Tens. This is 3-bet to $0.45 at +2 and flatted by the Button, so I make the call hoping that if I hit a set I could be golden. Flop [9d 7h 2h] and I am first to act. I check and +2 bets the pot, $1.42, the Button instantly shoves for $2.24 and it's pretty obvious that even though I have an overpair, I am in bad shape, so I fold. +2 takes no time to call for the extra $0.82. It's AA v QQ and I am breathing a sigh of relief that I got out of dodge.
These are the kind of pitfalls you have to avoid if you don't want to go constantly broke. It's easy to fold the Tens if there are a couple of overcards, but when you have an overpair you have to know that with a raise and re-raise that you are up against a bigger pair, or a set.Hand 71:
This is an example of how sick this game can be. I pick up pocket 9's in the cut-off and there is only one limper pre-flop. Flop [Qh 7s 8c] and it goes check-check. Turn [9s] completes my set, but puts a potential straight out there, It's checked to me and bet $0.10 and get quickly called. The river [Tc] also adds potential flushes to the equation. He only has $0.19 left and shoves it into the middle. I am convinced I am beat, but for only $0.19 I make the call just to see how bad a beat it is and he turns up Kc 6c to win the hand with the idiot end of the straight.
Hand 81:This is an example of how flops and boards can completely kill the action and even having hit a set on the river I cannot even bet for value.
Hand 144:
Another 'cold deck' scenario that I managed to extricate myself from, post flop. I'd been dealt AK several times in this session, and on each occasion I had raised pre-flop and everyone had folded. This it was in the BB and there had been a raise and two calls before I flatted. The flop [8s Tc 6c] brought a pot sized bet ($0.68) and a call before it got to me. I smelled something fishy, and with only overcards and no draw I gave up the hand. The initial raiser on flat called to see a 7h on the turn. This was now 4 to a straight and with two clubs already on board, it was looking a bit scary.
The initial raiser then shoves his remaining stack ($1.86) into the middle and it goes fold-call with them turning up Ah-Ad and Ac-4c respectively. It's amazing that people will get it in so far behind on the turn, and even more frustrating that I watched the Aces hold up (Js on the river), when normally if I am in that situation the club always comes on the river.
Hand 194:
I'd been dealt 10's more than my fair share of times this evening, and it seemed like every time I did there was a bigger hand out there (such as in hand 17, earlier). Again, there was a sizeable raise before it got to me and I made the call and the blinds also come along. This time I hit the set on the flop [Tc 7c Kh], however you can never be sure of even being ahead at this stage - all I can think is he's got pocket Kings. He bets out $0.35, just under the pot size, and normally my conservative play tells me to flat call - but I decided to throw caution to the wind and raise it to $1.10, especially as there are still 2 players to act behind me. The both fold and it comes back to the initial raiser - who now makes it $3.98, putting me all-in. At worst, I think he has AK possibly of Clubs, but he actually turns up Kd-Qh. I am delighted not to be up against the flush draw, or 2-pair, so any beat will have to be runner-runner. The Jd on the turn is a sweat card and he now has any 9 or any Ace to make a straight. Surely it cannot happen! It doesn't, the river is 5h and I've doubled up. It's been a very frustrating evening up 'til then.
Hand 288:I only include this hand because it is a direct opposite of how I normally play. I had AK (again) in late position (hijack) and made my standard raise $0.15, this is 3-bet to $0.45 by the SB. Now, the SB is probably the worst position in poker - you are out of position against every other spot on the table, so 3-betting from the SB usually means a pretty decent hand, or a pretty poor player. Normally I would flat call and use my position to try and win post-flop, but this time I decided that I'd been on a decent run and he could be doing this with a medium pair, or even A-Q, so since he only had about $1.60 behind I decide to set him all-in and take my chances.
He calls and shows Qc-Qd and it is the classic race. The board runs out [7h 5c 5d] followed by [6d] on the turn, and I sigh at the prospect of losing another race (every time I have KK or QQ and all the money ends up in the middle it's against an Ace, and there's always one on the flop). However, the saviour comes on the river - [Ah]. Not an elegant way of making money, but after some of the reverses I've suffered recently I will happily take it.
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