Twice, again, tonight I picked up Queens and ran into Kings - stacked off both times. 'Nuff said!
I played 715 hands tonight, and here's the stat's on the Pocket Pairs - as they happened...
The figure at the beginning is the hand-number:
(w)=Won, (l)=Lost, ([k])=Lost to Kings, (*)=Flopped a Set, (f)=Folded pre-flop
#009 QQ x 1 (l[k])
#011 44 x 1 (w*)
#048 99 x 1 (l)
#088 88 x 1 (l)
#111 JJ x 1 (w)
#129 QQ x 2 (l)
#217 22 x 1 (l)
#246 99 x 2 (f*)
#264 KK x 1 (w)
#281 KK x 2 (w)
#303 22 x 2 (l)
#317 22 x 3 (w*)
#354 22 x 4 (w*)
#356 99 x 3 (l)
#374 33 x 1 (l)
#378 88 x 2 (l)
#384 22 x 5 (w)
#388 55 x 1 (l)
#397 88 x 3 (w)
#406 AA x 1 (w)
#412 44 x 2 (w)
#422 QQ x 3 (w)
#429 66 x 1 (l)
#438 55 x 2 (w)
#451 88 x 4 (w*)
#455 55 x 3 (l)
#469 JJ x 2 (l)
#470 JJ x 3 (w)
#509 22 x 6 (l)
#531 55 x 3 (l)
#537 JJ x 4 (l)
#541 QQ x 4 (l[k])
#561 44 x 3 (f)
#631 66 x 2 (w)
#640 88 x 5 (f)
#643 44 x 4 (f)
#667 QQ x 5 (w)
#677 AA x 2 (w)
#693 55 x 4 (l)
#698 77 x 1 (w)
#701 AA x 3 (w)
#711 33 x 2 (w)
#714 22 x 7 (l)
So, I picked up 43 pocket pairs during the session. That's 1 every 16.7 hands - as near as can be to the statistical average. Of those hands I folded 4 pre-flop. From the 39 pairs I saw the flop with I made a set 4 times. That's only once in every 9.75 hands, and the average should be once in every 8.7, so it's not too far below.
However, that's not the whole story - I mis-clicked on hand #246, when I was dealt pocket 9's and would have hit a set on that flop, if I had called (as I intended to).
So, overall, 43 total pocket pairs, and including the pre-flop folds, I would have hit 5 sets. That's an average of 8.6, so is virtually spot on - I can have no real complaints tonight, except for the fact that I made diddly-squat when I did make the sets, as I got no customers on any of them - seriously, made the absolute minimum when I had the goods.
When you put this up against the fact that twice tonight I ended up getting it all-in pre-flop with pocket Queens, and both times ran into Kings is where I lost the bulk of my stack. My total buy-in for the evening amounted to $14.00, and I cashed out (beleaguered) with a shade over $7.00, Probably my biggest losing session in a long time.
There was some other really nasty hands, along the way, that cost me severely. Like 3 hands in quick succession where I picked up A-J and lost to A-K (blind on blind) another with A-Q which met another A-K and one with A-10 that ran into A-J (where I flopped top-pair and the nut flush draw and stacked off when the flush did not arrive). At the time I had a stack of about $10 (after reloading with $5.00 and building it up), those 3 hands, I would say in the space of 10-15 hands, bumped me back down to $3.00, and I had to work it back up to $7.00 before I called it quits.
It really should not be this hard to win at least a couple of these hands. You would think after playing 715 hands that once or twice I might come up against an opponent with just less of a hand than me, but I am seriously getting paranoid and it is affecting my play. Every hand I am convinced I am beat - because usually I am.
I picked up Aces 3 times this session, and only once did it go down to the river, and the boards were as wet as you could imagine. One saw a flop of T-J-Q of hearts, and I had Ac-As, the other guy was calling all my bets and shoved on the river - he had T-8 (flopped bottom pair and was chasing a straight and a flush with just the 8h). I'm amazed, the way I am running, that he didn't get there.
Another time I had Pocket Jacks and made a set on the turn, but my opponent had made a straight which improved to a flush, on the river, and I lost half my stack.
I just hope this run comes to an end very soon and I have a good session to get some of my losses back.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Addendum... More about pocket pairs
Again, this evening, I was tracking my pocket pairs. In 648 hands this is what I saw:
(w = won, l = lost, ^ = lost to Aces, * = flopped a set, f = folded pre-flop, kk = lost to Kings)
AA x 3 (w-w-w)
KK x 1 (l^)
QQ x 4 (l^-w-l[kk]-w)
JJ x 3 (w-l-w)
99 x 2 (w-w*)
88 x 3 (w*-l-f)
77 x 3 (l-l-w)
66 x 1 (w)
55 x 5 (f*-l*-l-l-l)
44 x 1 (w)
33 x 2 (l-l)
22 x 3 (f-l-f)
So, tonight I was dealt 31 pocket pairs from 648 hands. Statistics state I should have seen about 38 pairs, so this was quite a bit below average.
Of the 31 pairs I folded 4 of them pre-flop. So saw a flop with 27 pairs and should have expected to hit a set just over 3 times (3.1). I did, indeed, see 3 sets during the evening, so bang on average. But, I would have hit a set with one of the pairs of 5's that I folded, so if you count all the hands it would have been 4 from 31, which is above the average of 3.6.
The killer thing tonight was that I got Kings once, and ran into Aces. On two of the four occasions I got Queens I ran into Aces again, and Kings the other time. With cold decks like this it's pretty difficult not to go completely broke.
I won hands with 12 of the 27 flops that I saw, and 10 of those were with 8's or above (but the final one was where I hit a set with 6's). So it looks like I should only really play pocket 8's or above, but that being the case I would never have made most of my cash back on the last hand with the 6's.
(w = won, l = lost, ^ = lost to Aces, * = flopped a set, f = folded pre-flop, kk = lost to Kings)
AA x 3 (w-w-w)
KK x 1 (l^)
QQ x 4 (l^-w-l[kk]-w)
JJ x 3 (w-l-w)
99 x 2 (w-w*)
88 x 3 (w*-l-f)
77 x 3 (l-l-w)
66 x 1 (w)
55 x 5 (f*-l*-l-l-l)
44 x 1 (w)
33 x 2 (l-l)
22 x 3 (f-l-f)
So, tonight I was dealt 31 pocket pairs from 648 hands. Statistics state I should have seen about 38 pairs, so this was quite a bit below average.
Of the 31 pairs I folded 4 of them pre-flop. So saw a flop with 27 pairs and should have expected to hit a set just over 3 times (3.1). I did, indeed, see 3 sets during the evening, so bang on average. But, I would have hit a set with one of the pairs of 5's that I folded, so if you count all the hands it would have been 4 from 31, which is above the average of 3.6.
The killer thing tonight was that I got Kings once, and ran into Aces. On two of the four occasions I got Queens I ran into Aces again, and Kings the other time. With cold decks like this it's pretty difficult not to go completely broke.
I won hands with 12 of the 27 flops that I saw, and 10 of those were with 8's or above (but the final one was where I hit a set with 6's). So it looks like I should only really play pocket 8's or above, but that being the case I would never have made most of my cash back on the last hand with the 6's.
What an horrendous night, until...
I've had some topsy-turvy sessions in the past, but I don't remember so many cold decks and reversals in a single session before.
It all started when I folded the very first hand:
Hand #001:
I'm in the SB with As-Js and there is a raise from mid-position and a re-raise from the button - so I decide I don't want to go broke this early and lay it down. I watch the hand play out and the early position raiser flat calls. The flop is Ac-8c-8h and they both check it down, turning up KK and QQ respectively. I could have made a nice profit early on, if I wasn't such a nit.
Hand #007
Just a few hands later I pick up Pocket Queens in mid-position. I standard raise, and 1 opponent 3-bets. I call and the flop is Js-3h-9h. I check, so does he. The turn is the 9s - I don't believe he would 3-bet pre-flop with a 9, so I decide to lead. He raises, and I push. He calls and, of course, turns up Aces.
Thankfully he didn't have me completely covered, but I've done more than half my stack.
Hand #013:
I'm in the BB with pocket 5's and just want to see a cheap flop. No such luck. There's a raise from the button and the SB calls. The flop is 3h-5c-Qc, and I would have hit my set. I watch as the two guys go to war as the SB turns up Kd-Qh for a flopped top-pair, against the button's pocket Kings.
Another hand I would have scooped if I had played.
Now I am really miffed, and cursing missed opportunities. If I had played this and the first hands I probably would have called it a night and what was to come would have been avoided.
Hand #045
I pick up the pocket 5's again, in the cut-off and limp. The BB raises and I make the call. Flop is 5d-8d-Kd - a flopped set, but a flushing board. He leads out and he only has about $1.00 behind, so I put him all-in and he calls, with Qd-8c, middle pair and the 2nd nut flush draw.
Of course, the 9d hits the turn and my only outs are a paired board, which doesn't happen.
It's sick that I fold two hands earlier that would have scooped decent pots, and I end up getting out-drawn by a sick Q-8.
Hand #102
This time, with pocket 8's from the cut-off I see a flop of 8d-7h-6d against 1 opponent. It couldn't be wetter! I lead, he folds, no profit.
Story of my life is when I hit something I cannot find a customer or the board is so scary that it kills the action.
Hand #164
I've got pocket Tens, in the hijack and limp. It's raised from the button and I call. The flop is 7s-As-4h. I check and so does he. Now, I can't believe he would have checked any Ace on a flush-drawing board, so I put him on K-Q or a small pocket pair.
The turn is the 9h and this time I lead out. He instantly raises, which makes me slightly suspicious, but now I put him on KQ of hearts. The river is the 3c and I put out a blocker bet of $0.50 which is min-raised. A value bet, if ever I saw one - I begrudgingly call, expecting to see Aces, but instead it's pocket 9's, for a turned set. Lucky git - a 2-outer.
Now I am absolutely fuming.
Hand #229
Things go along without much incident for about 60 hands, when I pick up the Cowboys from the cut-off. I standard min-raise and this is min-re-raised from the SB. Being a bit tilty, I decide to shove, as I cannot believe he has Aces. He calls, he has Aces.
First, my QQ runs into AA, then my TT runs into 99 who turns the set, now my KK runs into AA again. What have I done to anger the poker gods?
Hand #338
I've reloaded and been card-dead for about 100 hands. I limp from UTG+1 with Ac-8c, trying to see a cheap flop. It comes down Js-5c-9c. The BB leads into me and I have had enough. With only about $3.00 left I decide to shove - I am no worse than 50-50 against any hand.
He calls with Ad-9d, for 2nd pair and no draw!! Seriously, I know he had a decent stack, but I couldn't believe it. I could have been shoving with a set, or Aces.
Needless to say, my flush doesn't materialise and I've gone bust for the 3rd time this evening.
Hand #364
I pick up pocket 9's UTG and limp (as I do). There's a raise from mid-position and I call. The flop comes down Ah-Ac-9s against 1 opponent. I check and he fires out $1.00, just under the pot size. I am praying he has an Ace, so I wait as long as I can and shove. He insta-folds.
No idea what he actually had, but it was probably something like QQ or JJ. I got a small amount, but could not maximize.
Hand #373
I pick up the Ladies, UTG, and make the standard 3xBB raise. This is flat-called in mid-position and the two of us see a 9c-3h-9d flop. I lead and he re-raises. I've had enough and shove...no way I've run into a bigger pair, again. Wrong, he calls with KK.
That's 3 times I've run into an overpair with QQ or KK and it's really becoming annoying.
Hand #402
Pocket Jack, this time, in the SB. It's folded round and the button raises. I decide to re-raise in case he is stealing, and he calls. The board is all undercards, 3c-6d-9c. I check and he bets, I re-raise and he calls. The turn is 7h and the board is getting a bit straighty for my liking, so I lead out for $1.00 and he calls again. It's getting very expensive if he is chasing a draw, and he has only left himself $1.80 back. The river is 4c and now I am getting worried.
He shoves and I have to make a decision - was he floating? Does he have an overpair?
The pot is too big to fold and I make the call. Kh-Qd, for no draw whatsoever, just overcards.
It's my biggest pot of the night and I am back on track to try and recover some of my losses.
Hand #449
At this stage my buy-in's have cost me $19.00 and my stack is about $9.00. I pick up As-Td in the small blind and call a min-raise from UTG. We see a Th-Kd-Tc board and I need to get the maximum. I check and he leads into me, I re-raise and he shoves. Just what I wanted, I insta-call. He's got Kc-Jc. The turn is a safe 3d, so no straight or flush draws materialise, I just need to fade a 2-outer, only one of the two remaining Kings is good enough.
I'm gobsmacked as the Kh hits the river. Can this night get any worse?
I'm busted back down to about $6.50.
Hand #500
This was the 3rd time I'd seen the Pocket Rockets this evening and on both previous occasions I had raised and everyone folded. This time I re-raised an early position bet and it was called.
The flop was 8d-9s-6s. Straighty and flushy I decide to lead out. This is just flat-called. The turn is the 6h. I bet again and this is just flatted. The river is the Ac, now I know I am golden, and I bet about $1.00. This is (eventually) called, and he turns up Qc-Qd.
How come on a board full of undercards he cannot find a shove - how does all the money not end up in the middle? I've done my stack twice this evening, with QQ running into both KK and AA - how come he loses the minimum?
Hand #597
Not a big hand, just posted this as it was the only time in the entire night that I completed a flush. It took 597 hands.
Hand #639
This hand is a prime example of how, when I have the nuts, the board runs out so scary that I am either losing, or the action is completely killed.
I've got 8c-9c and call a small mid-position raise, from the cut-off. The flop is 7d-5s-As.
He leads out for about 2/3 pot and I tank with just a gut-shot. I decide it's a good spot to float, and if a 3rd spade comes down I might be able to take it away. It's slightly better, as the 6d hits me in the gut and I make my straight. Now, I am in the position where I feel I have led my opponent to believe that I was chasing a flush. He checks and so do I, keeping up appearances.
The river is just about the worst possible card - 8d. This puts the flush and 4-to-a-straight out there. He checks and so do I, believing I am only going to get called by a better hand.
He had a decent Ace and I could have made a pretty good value bet on the river if the 8d hadn't completely killed the action. This seems to be a constant theme when I make decent hands.
Hand #648
It took about 2 hours and 648 hands before I finally got it all in ahead, got called, and won.
I've got pocket 6's UTG and limp. This is raised to 4xBB from mid-pos and I make the call.
Ts-Ah-6s is the flop and I have to make the most of this. I check and he bets just under the pot.
I re-raise about 3x his bet and he tanks for a while before shoving. I make the quick call.
What I don't want to see is any flush draw - and I don't, it's Ad-Kd and he is miles behind.
It's going to take runner-runner for me to lose this one. No sweat, he's drawing dead when the 4c hits the turn and I can breathe a sigh of relief.
I finally got out of the session with $15.25, and my loss was only $3.75. At one point I was down over $16.00. What I want to know is why it took over 600 hands for me to find a decent pot? Why can't this happen 40-50 hands in and I can quit after half an hour with a profit, rather than chasing my tail all the time?
It all started when I folded the very first hand:
Hand #001:
I'm in the SB with As-Js and there is a raise from mid-position and a re-raise from the button - so I decide I don't want to go broke this early and lay it down. I watch the hand play out and the early position raiser flat calls. The flop is Ac-8c-8h and they both check it down, turning up KK and QQ respectively. I could have made a nice profit early on, if I wasn't such a nit.
Hand #007Just a few hands later I pick up Pocket Queens in mid-position. I standard raise, and 1 opponent 3-bets. I call and the flop is Js-3h-9h. I check, so does he. The turn is the 9s - I don't believe he would 3-bet pre-flop with a 9, so I decide to lead. He raises, and I push. He calls and, of course, turns up Aces.
Thankfully he didn't have me completely covered, but I've done more than half my stack.
Hand #013:
I'm in the BB with pocket 5's and just want to see a cheap flop. No such luck. There's a raise from the button and the SB calls. The flop is 3h-5c-Qc, and I would have hit my set. I watch as the two guys go to war as the SB turns up Kd-Qh for a flopped top-pair, against the button's pocket Kings.
Another hand I would have scooped if I had played.
Now I am really miffed, and cursing missed opportunities. If I had played this and the first hands I probably would have called it a night and what was to come would have been avoided.
Hand #045
I pick up the pocket 5's again, in the cut-off and limp. The BB raises and I make the call. Flop is 5d-8d-Kd - a flopped set, but a flushing board. He leads out and he only has about $1.00 behind, so I put him all-in and he calls, with Qd-8c, middle pair and the 2nd nut flush draw.
Of course, the 9d hits the turn and my only outs are a paired board, which doesn't happen.
It's sick that I fold two hands earlier that would have scooped decent pots, and I end up getting out-drawn by a sick Q-8.
Hand #102
This time, with pocket 8's from the cut-off I see a flop of 8d-7h-6d against 1 opponent. It couldn't be wetter! I lead, he folds, no profit.
Story of my life is when I hit something I cannot find a customer or the board is so scary that it kills the action.
Hand #164
I've got pocket Tens, in the hijack and limp. It's raised from the button and I call. The flop is 7s-As-4h. I check and so does he. Now, I can't believe he would have checked any Ace on a flush-drawing board, so I put him on K-Q or a small pocket pair.
The turn is the 9h and this time I lead out. He instantly raises, which makes me slightly suspicious, but now I put him on KQ of hearts. The river is the 3c and I put out a blocker bet of $0.50 which is min-raised. A value bet, if ever I saw one - I begrudgingly call, expecting to see Aces, but instead it's pocket 9's, for a turned set. Lucky git - a 2-outer.
Now I am absolutely fuming.
Hand #229
Things go along without much incident for about 60 hands, when I pick up the Cowboys from the cut-off. I standard min-raise and this is min-re-raised from the SB. Being a bit tilty, I decide to shove, as I cannot believe he has Aces. He calls, he has Aces.
First, my QQ runs into AA, then my TT runs into 99 who turns the set, now my KK runs into AA again. What have I done to anger the poker gods?
Hand #338
I've reloaded and been card-dead for about 100 hands. I limp from UTG+1 with Ac-8c, trying to see a cheap flop. It comes down Js-5c-9c. The BB leads into me and I have had enough. With only about $3.00 left I decide to shove - I am no worse than 50-50 against any hand.
He calls with Ad-9d, for 2nd pair and no draw!! Seriously, I know he had a decent stack, but I couldn't believe it. I could have been shoving with a set, or Aces.
Needless to say, my flush doesn't materialise and I've gone bust for the 3rd time this evening.
Hand #364
I pick up pocket 9's UTG and limp (as I do). There's a raise from mid-position and I call. The flop comes down Ah-Ac-9s against 1 opponent. I check and he fires out $1.00, just under the pot size. I am praying he has an Ace, so I wait as long as I can and shove. He insta-folds.
No idea what he actually had, but it was probably something like QQ or JJ. I got a small amount, but could not maximize.Hand #373
I pick up the Ladies, UTG, and make the standard 3xBB raise. This is flat-called in mid-position and the two of us see a 9c-3h-9d flop. I lead and he re-raises. I've had enough and shove...no way I've run into a bigger pair, again. Wrong, he calls with KK.
That's 3 times I've run into an overpair with QQ or KK and it's really becoming annoying.
Hand #402
Pocket Jack, this time, in the SB. It's folded round and the button raises. I decide to re-raise in case he is stealing, and he calls. The board is all undercards, 3c-6d-9c. I check and he bets, I re-raise and he calls. The turn is 7h and the board is getting a bit straighty for my liking, so I lead out for $1.00 and he calls again. It's getting very expensive if he is chasing a draw, and he has only left himself $1.80 back. The river is 4c and now I am getting worried.
He shoves and I have to make a decision - was he floating? Does he have an overpair?
The pot is too big to fold and I make the call. Kh-Qd, for no draw whatsoever, just overcards.
It's my biggest pot of the night and I am back on track to try and recover some of my losses.
Hand #449
At this stage my buy-in's have cost me $19.00 and my stack is about $9.00. I pick up As-Td in the small blind and call a min-raise from UTG. We see a Th-Kd-Tc board and I need to get the maximum. I check and he leads into me, I re-raise and he shoves. Just what I wanted, I insta-call. He's got Kc-Jc. The turn is a safe 3d, so no straight or flush draws materialise, I just need to fade a 2-outer, only one of the two remaining Kings is good enough.
I'm gobsmacked as the Kh hits the river. Can this night get any worse?
I'm busted back down to about $6.50.Hand #500
This was the 3rd time I'd seen the Pocket Rockets this evening and on both previous occasions I had raised and everyone folded. This time I re-raised an early position bet and it was called.
The flop was 8d-9s-6s. Straighty and flushy I decide to lead out. This is just flat-called. The turn is the 6h. I bet again and this is just flatted. The river is the Ac, now I know I am golden, and I bet about $1.00. This is (eventually) called, and he turns up Qc-Qd.
How come on a board full of undercards he cannot find a shove - how does all the money not end up in the middle? I've done my stack twice this evening, with QQ running into both KK and AA - how come he loses the minimum?
Hand #597
Not a big hand, just posted this as it was the only time in the entire night that I completed a flush. It took 597 hands.
Hand #639
This hand is a prime example of how, when I have the nuts, the board runs out so scary that I am either losing, or the action is completely killed.
I've got 8c-9c and call a small mid-position raise, from the cut-off. The flop is 7d-5s-As.
He leads out for about 2/3 pot and I tank with just a gut-shot. I decide it's a good spot to float, and if a 3rd spade comes down I might be able to take it away. It's slightly better, as the 6d hits me in the gut and I make my straight. Now, I am in the position where I feel I have led my opponent to believe that I was chasing a flush. He checks and so do I, keeping up appearances.
The river is just about the worst possible card - 8d. This puts the flush and 4-to-a-straight out there. He checks and so do I, believing I am only going to get called by a better hand.
He had a decent Ace and I could have made a pretty good value bet on the river if the 8d hadn't completely killed the action. This seems to be a constant theme when I make decent hands.
Hand #648
It took about 2 hours and 648 hands before I finally got it all in ahead, got called, and won.
I've got pocket 6's UTG and limp. This is raised to 4xBB from mid-pos and I make the call.
Ts-Ah-6s is the flop and I have to make the most of this. I check and he bets just under the pot.
I re-raise about 3x his bet and he tanks for a while before shoving. I make the quick call.
What I don't want to see is any flush draw - and I don't, it's Ad-Kd and he is miles behind.
It's going to take runner-runner for me to lose this one. No sweat, he's drawing dead when the 4c hits the turn and I can breathe a sigh of relief.
I finally got out of the session with $15.25, and my loss was only $3.75. At one point I was down over $16.00. What I want to know is why it took over 600 hands for me to find a decent pot? Why can't this happen 40-50 hands in and I can quit after half an hour with a profit, rather than chasing my tail all the time?
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Got out of jail, in the end.
Another frustrating night of Rush Poker - still monitoring those pocket pairs!
I played 355 hands, and this is what I saw
(w = won hand, l = lost hand, f = folded pre-flop, * = hit a set on the flop)
KK x 3 (w-w-w)
QQ x 4 (w*-w*-w-w)
JJ x 2 (w-l)
TT x 2 (l-l)
99 x 1 (l)
88 x 3 (w-w-l)
55 x 3 (w-l-f)
44 x 4 (f-w-l-l)
22 x 2 (l-l)
As you can see, I picked up 24 pocket pairs, from 355 hands. That's an average of 1 in every 14.8 hands (better than the average of 1 in every 17).
I twice folded pre-flop (to big raises/re-raises), so saw 22 flops and hit a set on 2 occasions - both with pocket Queens (in fact, I flopped a boat with the first one, and got no action, and the second time I had Queens I turned a boat full of Jacks, and only got paid the minimum from A-J, as the river put a possible flush on the board).
So, 2 out of 22 flops is equal to 1 set in every 11 pairs, still a bit below the average of 1 in every 8.7 times, but maybe not as bad as last night.
I had been frustrated for the first 354 hands and had to re-load several times, such that my initial $5.00 turned into $10.00 very quickly. However, the last hand was my get out of jail hand. I had Pocket Kings in the BB and there were 4 limpers, so I made it $0.35 to go, and still picked up 3 callers.
The flop was 5c-Qd-Js. I was about to bet out, and paused, deciding to check-raise any bet. P1 makes it $0.50 (just over 1/3 pot) and this is quickly called by P2. P3 folds, and it's back round to me. The pot is now $2.36 and they have $1.99 and $2.78 back, respectively. I decide there are too many draws out there so I decide to put them both all-in, with a $3.45 bet. I am expecting one of them to have top-pair and the other to have a draw, so I am hoping for one call - I get two.
P1 has 10-J, for middle pair and P2 has K-J, same again with a better kicker. So, I now have to fade another Jack, or a Ten. The turn is relief, as the Kc lands, giving me the set. P2 is drawing dead, and I now have to fade an Ace on the river (that would have been criminal). It's the 5d (improving me to a house). I scooped the $9.80 pot to get myself back into profit for the evening.
That's when I decided to call it a night. Again, I was ahead of the average for pocket pairs dealt, but behind the average for sets seen on the flop. One night it'll all come together and I might make a few bob - 'til then I'll keep grinding.
I played 355 hands, and this is what I saw
(w = won hand, l = lost hand, f = folded pre-flop, * = hit a set on the flop)
KK x 3 (w-w-w)
QQ x 4 (w*-w*-w-w)
JJ x 2 (w-l)
TT x 2 (l-l)
99 x 1 (l)
88 x 3 (w-w-l)
55 x 3 (w-l-f)
44 x 4 (f-w-l-l)
22 x 2 (l-l)
As you can see, I picked up 24 pocket pairs, from 355 hands. That's an average of 1 in every 14.8 hands (better than the average of 1 in every 17).
I twice folded pre-flop (to big raises/re-raises), so saw 22 flops and hit a set on 2 occasions - both with pocket Queens (in fact, I flopped a boat with the first one, and got no action, and the second time I had Queens I turned a boat full of Jacks, and only got paid the minimum from A-J, as the river put a possible flush on the board).
So, 2 out of 22 flops is equal to 1 set in every 11 pairs, still a bit below the average of 1 in every 8.7 times, but maybe not as bad as last night.
I had been frustrated for the first 354 hands and had to re-load several times, such that my initial $5.00 turned into $10.00 very quickly. However, the last hand was my get out of jail hand. I had Pocket Kings in the BB and there were 4 limpers, so I made it $0.35 to go, and still picked up 3 callers.
The flop was 5c-Qd-Js. I was about to bet out, and paused, deciding to check-raise any bet. P1 makes it $0.50 (just over 1/3 pot) and this is quickly called by P2. P3 folds, and it's back round to me. The pot is now $2.36 and they have $1.99 and $2.78 back, respectively. I decide there are too many draws out there so I decide to put them both all-in, with a $3.45 bet. I am expecting one of them to have top-pair and the other to have a draw, so I am hoping for one call - I get two.
P1 has 10-J, for middle pair and P2 has K-J, same again with a better kicker. So, I now have to fade another Jack, or a Ten. The turn is relief, as the Kc lands, giving me the set. P2 is drawing dead, and I now have to fade an Ace on the river (that would have been criminal). It's the 5d (improving me to a house). I scooped the $9.80 pot to get myself back into profit for the evening.
That's when I decided to call it a night. Again, I was ahead of the average for pocket pairs dealt, but behind the average for sets seen on the flop. One night it'll all come together and I might make a few bob - 'til then I'll keep grinding.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Pocket Pairs
Last night I wrote about the statistical anomaly that was getting dealt pocket 10's 5 times in 84 hands.
Tonight I've played 309 hands, and these are the pairs that I have had:
AA x 1
KK x 1
QQ x 1
JJ x 1
TT x 2
99 x 1
88 x 2
66 x 2
55 x 1
44 x 4
33 x 1
22 x 4
That's a total of 21 sets of pocket pairs. Given that a pocket pair is dealt every 17 hands, I should have expected to see 18 pairs in my hole cards - so this is only slightly above average.
However, once you have been dealt a pair, you expect to improve to a set, on the flop, one in every 9 times you have a pocket pair (actual odds are 77/10). So, for my 21 sets of pocket pairs I could have easily expected to hit twice, and optimistically have expected to catch three-times.
Not a sniff, in the 21 times I have had a pocket pair I saw 18 flops (folded Deuces twice, and got a walk with Kings) and didn't hit a single set.
Also, you would expect a reasonably even spread of the pairs hit, but 17 out of the 21 pairs were 10's or below. I only had AA, KK, QQ or JJ once each and was dealt Deuces and Fours 4 times each and Sixes, Eights and Tens twice each - a bit lop-sided.
Maybe 309 hands is not a big enough sample, but you have to feel pretty aggrieved to be defying the odds so badly.
*FINAL UPDATE*
I played a total of 610 hands:
AA x 3
KK x 1
QQ x 4
JJ x 1
TT x 4
99 x 2
88 x 3
77 x 3
66 x 6
55 x 2
44 x 4
33 x 2
22 x 4
I saw a total of 39 pocket pairs (and additional 18) - when statistics say 36 is about right, so still just above average.
I saw the flop with 16 of the 18 recent pairs (got a walk with QQ and folded 66 pre), making a total of 34 flops with a pocket pair and I finally hit a set with pocket 6's on hand 515.
That's 1 set on 34 flops with a pocket pair - almost 4 x the average.
Realistically, I should have expected to see a set a minimum of 4 times from 34 flops - so just 1 is an atrocious return; no wonder I couldn't make any money this evening.
I did get Aces 3 times, and won every pot I was in with them - I also won the pot with the 6's where I eventually made a set. I got a walk with Kings and once with Queens, but lost every other pot I was in with a pair. That's 33 flops, probably 13 of them I flatted and the other 20 were calls, so that's approximately $0.65 in limps and at least $3.00 in calls - so my action with pocket pairs cost me in the region of $3.65 (probably more, as I can remember continuing after the flop with a couple).
I ended the session $3.06 down - so if I had not bothered calling with anything less than QQ, I would probably have made a small profit. Something to think about!
Tonight I've played 309 hands, and these are the pairs that I have had:
AA x 1
KK x 1
QQ x 1
JJ x 1
TT x 2
99 x 1
88 x 2
66 x 2
55 x 1
44 x 4
33 x 1
22 x 4
That's a total of 21 sets of pocket pairs. Given that a pocket pair is dealt every 17 hands, I should have expected to see 18 pairs in my hole cards - so this is only slightly above average.
However, once you have been dealt a pair, you expect to improve to a set, on the flop, one in every 9 times you have a pocket pair (actual odds are 77/10). So, for my 21 sets of pocket pairs I could have easily expected to hit twice, and optimistically have expected to catch three-times.
Not a sniff, in the 21 times I have had a pocket pair I saw 18 flops (folded Deuces twice, and got a walk with Kings) and didn't hit a single set.
Also, you would expect a reasonably even spread of the pairs hit, but 17 out of the 21 pairs were 10's or below. I only had AA, KK, QQ or JJ once each and was dealt Deuces and Fours 4 times each and Sixes, Eights and Tens twice each - a bit lop-sided.
Maybe 309 hands is not a big enough sample, but you have to feel pretty aggrieved to be defying the odds so badly.
*FINAL UPDATE*
I played a total of 610 hands:
AA x 3
KK x 1
QQ x 4
JJ x 1
TT x 4
99 x 2
88 x 3
77 x 3
66 x 6
55 x 2
44 x 4
33 x 2
22 x 4
I saw a total of 39 pocket pairs (and additional 18) - when statistics say 36 is about right, so still just above average.
I saw the flop with 16 of the 18 recent pairs (got a walk with QQ and folded 66 pre), making a total of 34 flops with a pocket pair and I finally hit a set with pocket 6's on hand 515.
That's 1 set on 34 flops with a pocket pair - almost 4 x the average.
Realistically, I should have expected to see a set a minimum of 4 times from 34 flops - so just 1 is an atrocious return; no wonder I couldn't make any money this evening.
I did get Aces 3 times, and won every pot I was in with them - I also won the pot with the 6's where I eventually made a set. I got a walk with Kings and once with Queens, but lost every other pot I was in with a pair. That's 33 flops, probably 13 of them I flatted and the other 20 were calls, so that's approximately $0.65 in limps and at least $3.00 in calls - so my action with pocket pairs cost me in the region of $3.65 (probably more, as I can remember continuing after the flop with a couple).
I ended the session $3.06 down - so if I had not bothered calling with anything less than QQ, I would probably have made a small profit. Something to think about!
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Statistical anomoly
Playing Rush poker, just stopped to post this:
So far I have seen 85 hands and have been dealt the following pocket pairs:
Pocket 7's = 1 time
Pocket Aces = 2 times
Pocket 10's = 5 times
Pocket 2's = 1 time
Pocket 4's = 1 time
The odds of being dealt any pocket pair are 16/1, so you should expect to see one, on average, once in every 17 hands. So, from 85 hands it is expected that I would have seen 5 pocket pairs - I've seen 10, that's double the average.
The odds on being dealt any particular pocket pair are 220/1, so you should expect to see Aces once in every 221 hands - I picked them up twice in the space of 5 hands; seeing Aces twice in the 85 hands I've played is more than 5x the statistical probability.
Now, to pick up pocket 10's 5 times you would have expected to have been through something like 1,100 hands - so the chances of hitting them 5 times in 85 hands is 13x the statistical probability.
I think I should quit while I am ahead, as I have obviously had all my luck from the dealer and could go any number of hands before I see another.
So far I have seen 85 hands and have been dealt the following pocket pairs:
Pocket 7's = 1 time
Pocket Aces = 2 times
Pocket 10's = 5 times
Pocket 2's = 1 time
Pocket 4's = 1 time
The odds of being dealt any pocket pair are 16/1, so you should expect to see one, on average, once in every 17 hands. So, from 85 hands it is expected that I would have seen 5 pocket pairs - I've seen 10, that's double the average.
The odds on being dealt any particular pocket pair are 220/1, so you should expect to see Aces once in every 221 hands - I picked them up twice in the space of 5 hands; seeing Aces twice in the 85 hands I've played is more than 5x the statistical probability.
Now, to pick up pocket 10's 5 times you would have expected to have been through something like 1,100 hands - so the chances of hitting them 5 times in 85 hands is 13x the statistical probability.
I think I should quit while I am ahead, as I have obviously had all my luck from the dealer and could go any number of hands before I see another.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Avoiding cold-deck situations
Hand 17:
I wasn't involved in this hand for very long, but thought I would post it as an example of the kind of 'ice' cold decks that can occur on Full Tilt, especially in Rush.
I raise to $0.15, UTG+1, with pocket Tens. This is 3-bet to $0.45 at +2 and flatted by the Button, so I make the call hoping that if I hit a set I could be golden. Flop [9d 7h 2h] and I am first to act. I check and +2 bets the pot, $1.42, the Button instantly shoves for $2.24 and it's pretty obvious that even though I have an overpair, I am in bad shape, so I fold. +2 takes no time to call for the extra $0.82. It's AA v QQ and I am breathing a sigh of relief that I got out of dodge.
These are the kind of pitfalls you have to avoid if you don't want to go constantly broke. It's easy to fold the Tens if there are a couple of overcards, but when you have an overpair you have to know that with a raise and re-raise that you are up against a bigger pair, or a set.
Hand 71:
This is an example of how sick this game can be. I pick up pocket 9's in the cut-off and there is only one limper pre-flop. Flop [Qh 7s 8c] and it goes check-check. Turn [9s] completes my set, but puts a potential straight out there, It's checked to me and bet $0.10 and get quickly called. The river [Tc] also adds potential flushes to the equation. He only has $0.19 left and shoves it into the middle. I am convinced I am beat, but for only $0.19 I make the call just to see how bad a beat it is and he turns up Kc 6c to win the hand with the idiot end of the straight.
Hand 81:
This is an example of how flops and boards can completely kill the action and even having hit a set on the river I cannot even bet for value.
Hand 144:
Another 'cold deck' scenario that I managed to extricate myself from, post flop. I'd been dealt AK several times in this session, and on each occasion I had raised pre-flop and everyone had folded. This it was in the BB and there had been a raise and two calls before I flatted. The flop [8s Tc 6c] brought a pot sized bet ($0.68) and a call before it got to me. I smelled something fishy, and with only overcards and no draw I gave up the hand. The initial raiser on flat called to see a 7h on the turn. This was now 4 to a straight and with two clubs already on board, it was looking a bit scary.
The initial raiser then shoves his remaining stack ($1.86) into the middle and it goes fold-call with them turning up Ah-Ad and Ac-4c respectively. It's amazing that people will get it in so far behind on the turn, and even more frustrating that I watched the Aces hold up (Js on the river), when normally if I am in that situation the club always comes on the river.
Hand 194:
I'd been dealt 10's more than my fair share of times this evening, and it seemed like every time I did there was a bigger hand out there (such as in hand 17, earlier). Again, there was a sizeable raise before it got to me and I made the call and the blinds also come along. This time I hit the set on the flop [Tc 7c Kh], however you can never be sure of even being ahead at this stage - all I can think is he's got pocket Kings. He bets out $0.35, just under the pot size, and normally my conservative play tells me to flat call - but I decided to throw caution to the wind and raise it to $1.10, especially as there are still 2 players to act behind me. The both fold and it comes back to the initial raiser - who now makes it $3.98, putting me all-in. At worst, I think he has AK possibly of Clubs, but he actually turns up Kd-Qh. I am delighted not to be up against the flush draw, or 2-pair, so any beat will have to be runner-runner. The Jd on the turn is a sweat card and he now has any 9 or any Ace to make a straight. Surely it cannot happen! It doesn't, the river is 5h and I've doubled up. It's been a very frustrating evening up 'til then.
Hand 288:
I only include this hand because it is a direct opposite of how I normally play. I had AK (again) in late position (hijack) and made my standard raise $0.15, this is 3-bet to $0.45 by the SB. Now, the SB is probably the worst position in poker - you are out of position against every other spot on the table, so 3-betting from the SB usually means a pretty decent hand, or a pretty poor player. Normally I would flat call and use my position to try and win post-flop, but this time I decided that I'd been on a decent run and he could be doing this with a medium pair, or even A-Q, so since he only had about $1.60 behind I decide to set him all-in and take my chances.
He calls and shows Qc-Qd and it is the classic race. The board runs out [7h 5c 5d] followed by [6d] on the turn, and I sigh at the prospect of losing another race (every time I have KK or QQ and all the money ends up in the middle it's against an Ace, and there's always one on the flop). However, the saviour comes on the river - [Ah]. Not an elegant way of making money, but after some of the reverses I've suffered recently I will happily take it.
I wasn't involved in this hand for very long, but thought I would post it as an example of the kind of 'ice' cold decks that can occur on Full Tilt, especially in Rush.
I raise to $0.15, UTG+1, with pocket Tens. This is 3-bet to $0.45 at +2 and flatted by the Button, so I make the call hoping that if I hit a set I could be golden. Flop [9d 7h 2h] and I am first to act. I check and +2 bets the pot, $1.42, the Button instantly shoves for $2.24 and it's pretty obvious that even though I have an overpair, I am in bad shape, so I fold. +2 takes no time to call for the extra $0.82. It's AA v QQ and I am breathing a sigh of relief that I got out of dodge.
These are the kind of pitfalls you have to avoid if you don't want to go constantly broke. It's easy to fold the Tens if there are a couple of overcards, but when you have an overpair you have to know that with a raise and re-raise that you are up against a bigger pair, or a set.Hand 71:
This is an example of how sick this game can be. I pick up pocket 9's in the cut-off and there is only one limper pre-flop. Flop [Qh 7s 8c] and it goes check-check. Turn [9s] completes my set, but puts a potential straight out there, It's checked to me and bet $0.10 and get quickly called. The river [Tc] also adds potential flushes to the equation. He only has $0.19 left and shoves it into the middle. I am convinced I am beat, but for only $0.19 I make the call just to see how bad a beat it is and he turns up Kc 6c to win the hand with the idiot end of the straight.
Hand 81:This is an example of how flops and boards can completely kill the action and even having hit a set on the river I cannot even bet for value.
Hand 144:
Another 'cold deck' scenario that I managed to extricate myself from, post flop. I'd been dealt AK several times in this session, and on each occasion I had raised pre-flop and everyone had folded. This it was in the BB and there had been a raise and two calls before I flatted. The flop [8s Tc 6c] brought a pot sized bet ($0.68) and a call before it got to me. I smelled something fishy, and with only overcards and no draw I gave up the hand. The initial raiser on flat called to see a 7h on the turn. This was now 4 to a straight and with two clubs already on board, it was looking a bit scary.
The initial raiser then shoves his remaining stack ($1.86) into the middle and it goes fold-call with them turning up Ah-Ad and Ac-4c respectively. It's amazing that people will get it in so far behind on the turn, and even more frustrating that I watched the Aces hold up (Js on the river), when normally if I am in that situation the club always comes on the river.
Hand 194:
I'd been dealt 10's more than my fair share of times this evening, and it seemed like every time I did there was a bigger hand out there (such as in hand 17, earlier). Again, there was a sizeable raise before it got to me and I made the call and the blinds also come along. This time I hit the set on the flop [Tc 7c Kh], however you can never be sure of even being ahead at this stage - all I can think is he's got pocket Kings. He bets out $0.35, just under the pot size, and normally my conservative play tells me to flat call - but I decided to throw caution to the wind and raise it to $1.10, especially as there are still 2 players to act behind me. The both fold and it comes back to the initial raiser - who now makes it $3.98, putting me all-in. At worst, I think he has AK possibly of Clubs, but he actually turns up Kd-Qh. I am delighted not to be up against the flush draw, or 2-pair, so any beat will have to be runner-runner. The Jd on the turn is a sweat card and he now has any 9 or any Ace to make a straight. Surely it cannot happen! It doesn't, the river is 5h and I've doubled up. It's been a very frustrating evening up 'til then.
Hand 288:I only include this hand because it is a direct opposite of how I normally play. I had AK (again) in late position (hijack) and made my standard raise $0.15, this is 3-bet to $0.45 by the SB. Now, the SB is probably the worst position in poker - you are out of position against every other spot on the table, so 3-betting from the SB usually means a pretty decent hand, or a pretty poor player. Normally I would flat call and use my position to try and win post-flop, but this time I decided that I'd been on a decent run and he could be doing this with a medium pair, or even A-Q, so since he only had about $1.60 behind I decide to set him all-in and take my chances.
He calls and shows Qc-Qd and it is the classic race. The board runs out [7h 5c 5d] followed by [6d] on the turn, and I sigh at the prospect of losing another race (every time I have KK or QQ and all the money ends up in the middle it's against an Ace, and there's always one on the flop). However, the saviour comes on the river - [Ah]. Not an elegant way of making money, but after some of the reverses I've suffered recently I will happily take it.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Flattered, only to deceive
Oh, it all started off so well, then inevitably the run of bad beats, out-draws and missed opportunities materialised.
Hand 53:
I hadn't been sitting down long, and my initial $5.00 had swelled to over $6.50 when I picked up pocket 5's UTG. I limped and +1 raised to $0.22. It folds round to the BB who shoves for $2.27. I've got no option, really, but to fold. +1 makes the call and I am expecting to see AA v KK or AK v QQ. Actually, it's AK (+1, suited) v AQ. The Ace arrives on the flop and I am glad I got out of harms way, until the turn, which is the 5s. Isn't it always the hands you fold?!? If I'd been in the hand I still would have been sweating the river, as +1 had the nut flush draw. Th 3c secured the hand for +1, with AK, but I was ruing a missed opportunity - but, honestly, the fold was the right decision.
Hand 117:
Things had gone pretty well over the next 60 hands and my stack was now $8.72, when this happened. I pick up pocket 6's in the cut-off and, again, limp. It's not raised and we are 3-handed to the flop, 6c kc Ah. So, I've made a set on a very scary board. There's only $0.17 in the pot and when it's folded to me I overbet $0.20. This gets a fold and a call. So, now I put my remaining opponent either on a weak Ace or a flush draw (or, perhaps a King). The turn is the 2s, It's checked to me and, with a pot of $0.57, I make it $0.50, so a flush draw is only getting even money on a call, when actual odds are 5/2 - but he makes the call.
The worst card arrives on the river, Tc. So, now any flush draw has just got there - he checks to me and I cannot bet, I'm only getting called by a better hand, so I check - he turns up Qh-Jd, for a rivered broadway. Please tell me how such bad play gets rewarded. He didn't even have the flush draw, so he was on a 4-outer on the river, about 9% (10/1) and he calls a pot-sized bet?
Little did I know that was the beginning of the slippery slope (mostly).
Hand 237:
Over the next 120 hands I leaked chips down from $7.97 to $5.56, simply playing hands and constantly losing - nothing major, just a few chips here and there, without winning a hand of note. The I picked up the Cowboys, UTG, and make my standard raise to $0.15. The Button flat-calls followed by the BB raising to $0.62. It looks like a classic squeeze play (early position raiser and late position flat-call) and a stealing opportunity. The BB has $1.86 behind, so I decide to set him all-in. The Button gets out of the way and the BB quickly calls - I'm expecting either AA or AK, but he turns up Ac-Tc (wow, all-in with a suited Ace, great play!).
The flop comes down 6c-Kc-Ad - he'd hit his Ace, but I'd made a set - however, he did have the flush draw, so I am sweating. The 7d arrives on the turn, so now he's down to 8 clubs (7c is no good) he's 18% (or 9/2), you would think with the odds being heavily in my favour that this is going to hold up, just once - but no, the Jc duly arrives on the river. Again, idiotic pre-flop play has been rewarded. Seriously, why is it that getting your money in good is so seldom rewarded - it's scant consolation to be consoled by the knowledge that 4 out of 5 times I should win this hand, before the river, if the one time it happens I lose.
After that hand I am now down to just over $3.00, so I load up to the max and plough on.
Hand 240:
Three hands later I'm in early position with a suited Ace. I like to limp and see if a flush draw materializes. There's another couple of limpers and the flop comes down Ad-9s-5c. Now, this is the trouble that playing a rag-Ace gets you into. I've hit the flop, but have no idea where I am.
I check, it's checked behind and the Button bets $0.05. It looks like a weak bet and an attempt to just take down the pot, so I have to call, and the other player folds. The turn is the Qc. I check and now the Button bets out $0.25, so I am thinking he's either hit a Queen or is now on a flush draw, so I call. The river is the 3d, making me 2-pair. I check, with the intention of flat-calling any bet - he makes it $0.45 and I make the call. He turns over Ah 5d, for a better 2-pair.
Now, I don't consider this unlucky, or a bad-beat - it was purely bad play on my part. I was out of position with a weak Ace and should have raised on the flop to see where I was - flat-calling to the river cost me $0.75, when a raise to $0.20 on the flop would have most likely gotten a re-raise and I could have laid it down. However, what I did curse was hitting 2-pair on the river, the worst card I could have hit and that cost me the river call. Lesson learned.
Hand 247:
The one ray of light came only 7 hands later. I've got As-Ah UTG and make my standard $0.15 raise. +2 open shoves for $2.38 and it's folded back round, where I insta-call. He turns up pocket-Jacks. I should be delighted, but after the monotonous series of beats I am expecting some funky straight or 4-flush, or at worst, a Jack on the flop. Thankfully the board runs out 6c-8c-8h-9d-6d and my aces hold up (for once).
Hand 443:
The next 200 (or so) hands are up/down/up/down and I'm about $1 lighter than before. I pick up Kh-Kc in +3. The UTG flat-calls and I pop it to $0.20. It's folded round and he calls. The flop comes down 4s-4d-4c and I am sitting with a full-house. It goes check-check and the turn is the 6c. He bets $0.15 and I flat call. The river is the worst possible card, Ac. He instantly shoves all-in for $5.53 (the pot was only $0.77 at this stage) and I find myself with no option but to fold.
I lay it down, and the pot has only cost me $0.35, but I am cursing the river. Perhaps I was in horrendous shape and he had A-4, for flopped quads, but I simply cannot believe that. In the position he was in, there are only he either had a 4 or an Ace - he couldn't have shoved with anything else. Perhaps the Ace saved me, if it hadn't come I was calling the shove. Maybe it was an outrageous bluff, knowing no-one can call without the case 4, but would you shove your entire stack in, on that board, to win a $0.77c pot?
That was enough for me, and I called it a night. Started with $5.00, got it up to $8.97 at one point, was chipped down to $3.00 later, added another $1.50 and ended the night with $4.90, for a small loss of $1.60. I am seriously wondering whether it is possible to make a profit on these tables?
Hand 53:
I hadn't been sitting down long, and my initial $5.00 had swelled to over $6.50 when I picked up pocket 5's UTG. I limped and +1 raised to $0.22. It folds round to the BB who shoves for $2.27. I've got no option, really, but to fold. +1 makes the call and I am expecting to see AA v KK or AK v QQ. Actually, it's AK (+1, suited) v AQ. The Ace arrives on the flop and I am glad I got out of harms way, until the turn, which is the 5s. Isn't it always the hands you fold?!? If I'd been in the hand I still would have been sweating the river, as +1 had the nut flush draw. Th 3c secured the hand for +1, with AK, but I was ruing a missed opportunity - but, honestly, the fold was the right decision.
Hand 117:Things had gone pretty well over the next 60 hands and my stack was now $8.72, when this happened. I pick up pocket 6's in the cut-off and, again, limp. It's not raised and we are 3-handed to the flop, 6c kc Ah. So, I've made a set on a very scary board. There's only $0.17 in the pot and when it's folded to me I overbet $0.20. This gets a fold and a call. So, now I put my remaining opponent either on a weak Ace or a flush draw (or, perhaps a King). The turn is the 2s, It's checked to me and, with a pot of $0.57, I make it $0.50, so a flush draw is only getting even money on a call, when actual odds are 5/2 - but he makes the call.
The worst card arrives on the river, Tc. So, now any flush draw has just got there - he checks to me and I cannot bet, I'm only getting called by a better hand, so I check - he turns up Qh-Jd, for a rivered broadway. Please tell me how such bad play gets rewarded. He didn't even have the flush draw, so he was on a 4-outer on the river, about 9% (10/1) and he calls a pot-sized bet?
Little did I know that was the beginning of the slippery slope (mostly).
Hand 237:
Over the next 120 hands I leaked chips down from $7.97 to $5.56, simply playing hands and constantly losing - nothing major, just a few chips here and there, without winning a hand of note. The I picked up the Cowboys, UTG, and make my standard raise to $0.15. The Button flat-calls followed by the BB raising to $0.62. It looks like a classic squeeze play (early position raiser and late position flat-call) and a stealing opportunity. The BB has $1.86 behind, so I decide to set him all-in. The Button gets out of the way and the BB quickly calls - I'm expecting either AA or AK, but he turns up Ac-Tc (wow, all-in with a suited Ace, great play!).
The flop comes down 6c-Kc-Ad - he'd hit his Ace, but I'd made a set - however, he did have the flush draw, so I am sweating. The 7d arrives on the turn, so now he's down to 8 clubs (7c is no good) he's 18% (or 9/2), you would think with the odds being heavily in my favour that this is going to hold up, just once - but no, the Jc duly arrives on the river. Again, idiotic pre-flop play has been rewarded. Seriously, why is it that getting your money in good is so seldom rewarded - it's scant consolation to be consoled by the knowledge that 4 out of 5 times I should win this hand, before the river, if the one time it happens I lose.
After that hand I am now down to just over $3.00, so I load up to the max and plough on.Hand 240:
Three hands later I'm in early position with a suited Ace. I like to limp and see if a flush draw materializes. There's another couple of limpers and the flop comes down Ad-9s-5c. Now, this is the trouble that playing a rag-Ace gets you into. I've hit the flop, but have no idea where I am.
I check, it's checked behind and the Button bets $0.05. It looks like a weak bet and an attempt to just take down the pot, so I have to call, and the other player folds. The turn is the Qc. I check and now the Button bets out $0.25, so I am thinking he's either hit a Queen or is now on a flush draw, so I call. The river is the 3d, making me 2-pair. I check, with the intention of flat-calling any bet - he makes it $0.45 and I make the call. He turns over Ah 5d, for a better 2-pair.
Now, I don't consider this unlucky, or a bad-beat - it was purely bad play on my part. I was out of position with a weak Ace and should have raised on the flop to see where I was - flat-calling to the river cost me $0.75, when a raise to $0.20 on the flop would have most likely gotten a re-raise and I could have laid it down. However, what I did curse was hitting 2-pair on the river, the worst card I could have hit and that cost me the river call. Lesson learned.
Hand 247:
The one ray of light came only 7 hands later. I've got As-Ah UTG and make my standard $0.15 raise. +2 open shoves for $2.38 and it's folded back round, where I insta-call. He turns up pocket-Jacks. I should be delighted, but after the monotonous series of beats I am expecting some funky straight or 4-flush, or at worst, a Jack on the flop. Thankfully the board runs out 6c-8c-8h-9d-6d and my aces hold up (for once).
Hand 443:
The next 200 (or so) hands are up/down/up/down and I'm about $1 lighter than before. I pick up Kh-Kc in +3. The UTG flat-calls and I pop it to $0.20. It's folded round and he calls. The flop comes down 4s-4d-4c and I am sitting with a full-house. It goes check-check and the turn is the 6c. He bets $0.15 and I flat call. The river is the worst possible card, Ac. He instantly shoves all-in for $5.53 (the pot was only $0.77 at this stage) and I find myself with no option but to fold.
I lay it down, and the pot has only cost me $0.35, but I am cursing the river. Perhaps I was in horrendous shape and he had A-4, for flopped quads, but I simply cannot believe that. In the position he was in, there are only he either had a 4 or an Ace - he couldn't have shoved with anything else. Perhaps the Ace saved me, if it hadn't come I was calling the shove. Maybe it was an outrageous bluff, knowing no-one can call without the case 4, but would you shove your entire stack in, on that board, to win a $0.77c pot?That was enough for me, and I called it a night. Started with $5.00, got it up to $8.97 at one point, was chipped down to $3.00 later, added another $1.50 and ended the night with $4.90, for a small loss of $1.60. I am seriously wondering whether it is possible to make a profit on these tables?
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Crazy, up and down (then up) night
I won't say too much about this evening, I'll let the hands do the talking:
Hand 466:
Things went pretty much by the book for the first 465 hands. I picked up AA three times, twice in the BB (when I got a walk, both times) and another where I raised and everyone folded. I laid down Kings, twice, when on both occasions an Ace fell on the flop and I was faced with sizeable bets. I had to lay down Queens on an all undercard board with 4 diamonds when faced with an all-in from my opponent. However, I was still in profit when it came to this hand.
I limped in with Kh-Qh and the Button, SB and BB come along. The flop comes down Jh-7h-10h, for the first time in I don't know how long I've flopped a flush - and the 2nd nuts, at that (well, 3rd).
The blinds check to me and I lead out for half the pot and get quickly called by the Button. The blinds get out of the way and the turn is the 5d. Again, I bet about 3/4 pot (not wanting to see another heart, as he could have the Ace). Again, he flat calls. The river is another brick (4c) and I am now value betting. I bet about 1/3 pot (50c) and he instantly raises to $1.50.
I simply cannot believe that he has the Ace high flush and he must be bluffing - so I call. He turns up 9h-8h, for a flopped Straight Flush. This is simply another case of how bad I am running - I am just glad I didn't have the Ace, or I'd have shoved the rest of my stack in and been broke.
So, shrugging that off and with my stack down to just over $2, I reload to the max and work on getting it back.
Hand 531:
Over the next 80, or so, hands I've only increased my stack by about $1.00 when pick up Ah-Jh in the small blind. There's a min-raise from the button and I make the call. The flop is Jd-10h-Kh, so I have 2nd pair with top kicker and the nut flush draw. I check and he bets 20c, I call. The turn is a brick (2s), so I check again and bets about 30c, again I call. The flush doesn't materialise on the river (6c) and I check. Now, he pushes his last $1.30 into the middle, a massive overbet. I assume he believes I've missed any draws I was chasing and will not call, but I've still got 2nd pair - so I make the call (maybe a bit of a hero call), and he flips up Ac-Qc for a flopped Broadway.
Hand 594:
The next 60 hands fly past without any drama when I pick up pocket 10's in mid-position. It's raised ahead of me and I make the call. The flop is 2h-2c-6h and my opponent checks - I bet about 3/4 pot (about 30c) and he re-raises to 70c. With my overpair I make the call and hit the dream card on the turn, 10c. With the paired board I now have the nuts - he checks and I check back. The 8c lands on the river and he waits until the last second before betting out $1.20. Too many times in the past I've had the nuts and not got any value, so I am praying he has made a flush, or even has AA or KK. So, with only $3.00 left I push it into the middle; he tanks for half the clock and eventually calls - Ac-Qc for the nut flush, but not good enough. Hallelujah! At long, long last I've managed to find an opponent with the 2nd best hand who is prepared to double me up. Things are back on track.
Hand 683:
It's about 90 hands later, and nothing much has happened. I pick up the Cowboys in mid-position and make my standard raise to $0.15. The player immediately behind me raises this up to $0.50 and he only has $1.25 behind, so I decide to put him all-in. He makes the call and turns up Ah-Jh. The last 3 times I've had KK tonight there has been an Ace on the flop and I fully expect to see it again. However, the board runs out 4c-6h-9c-8c-2c (lucky he didn't have clubs!) and my Kings have held up. I'm now in profit for the evening, having got back everything I'd lost in the Straight Flush and Broadway hands.
Hand 711:
I almost decided to quit, having got myself back to level for the evening, but decided that I was on a decent run and should try and maximize it. And, about 30 hands later I pick up the Rockets in the cut-off. I never slow play, even though it was folded round to me, and I make the standard raise to $0.15. The SB makes this $0.45, with about $1.30 behind. Rather than just flat-call I decided to put him all-in and hope his re-raise is with a big enough hand to call - it is, he commits his stack and turns up Kings. It's all but over on the flop - 9d-8c-Ah. I don't even have to sweat the turn and river and my good run has continued.
I decided not to chance my luck any further and get out with a reasonable profit on the evening - not as good as it could have been, but at least it wasn't a loss.
Hand 466:
Things went pretty much by the book for the first 465 hands. I picked up AA three times, twice in the BB (when I got a walk, both times) and another where I raised and everyone folded. I laid down Kings, twice, when on both occasions an Ace fell on the flop and I was faced with sizeable bets. I had to lay down Queens on an all undercard board with 4 diamonds when faced with an all-in from my opponent. However, I was still in profit when it came to this hand.
I limped in with Kh-Qh and the Button, SB and BB come along. The flop comes down Jh-7h-10h, for the first time in I don't know how long I've flopped a flush - and the 2nd nuts, at that (well, 3rd).
The blinds check to me and I lead out for half the pot and get quickly called by the Button. The blinds get out of the way and the turn is the 5d. Again, I bet about 3/4 pot (not wanting to see another heart, as he could have the Ace). Again, he flat calls. The river is another brick (4c) and I am now value betting. I bet about 1/3 pot (50c) and he instantly raises to $1.50.
I simply cannot believe that he has the Ace high flush and he must be bluffing - so I call. He turns up 9h-8h, for a flopped Straight Flush. This is simply another case of how bad I am running - I am just glad I didn't have the Ace, or I'd have shoved the rest of my stack in and been broke.
So, shrugging that off and with my stack down to just over $2, I reload to the max and work on getting it back.Hand 531:
Over the next 80, or so, hands I've only increased my stack by about $1.00 when pick up Ah-Jh in the small blind. There's a min-raise from the button and I make the call. The flop is Jd-10h-Kh, so I have 2nd pair with top kicker and the nut flush draw. I check and he bets 20c, I call. The turn is a brick (2s), so I check again and bets about 30c, again I call. The flush doesn't materialise on the river (6c) and I check. Now, he pushes his last $1.30 into the middle, a massive overbet. I assume he believes I've missed any draws I was chasing and will not call, but I've still got 2nd pair - so I make the call (maybe a bit of a hero call), and he flips up Ac-Qc for a flopped Broadway.
Hand 594:The next 60 hands fly past without any drama when I pick up pocket 10's in mid-position. It's raised ahead of me and I make the call. The flop is 2h-2c-6h and my opponent checks - I bet about 3/4 pot (about 30c) and he re-raises to 70c. With my overpair I make the call and hit the dream card on the turn, 10c. With the paired board I now have the nuts - he checks and I check back. The 8c lands on the river and he waits until the last second before betting out $1.20. Too many times in the past I've had the nuts and not got any value, so I am praying he has made a flush, or even has AA or KK. So, with only $3.00 left I push it into the middle; he tanks for half the clock and eventually calls - Ac-Qc for the nut flush, but not good enough. Hallelujah! At long, long last I've managed to find an opponent with the 2nd best hand who is prepared to double me up. Things are back on track.
Hand 683:It's about 90 hands later, and nothing much has happened. I pick up the Cowboys in mid-position and make my standard raise to $0.15. The player immediately behind me raises this up to $0.50 and he only has $1.25 behind, so I decide to put him all-in. He makes the call and turns up Ah-Jh. The last 3 times I've had KK tonight there has been an Ace on the flop and I fully expect to see it again. However, the board runs out 4c-6h-9c-8c-2c (lucky he didn't have clubs!) and my Kings have held up. I'm now in profit for the evening, having got back everything I'd lost in the Straight Flush and Broadway hands.
Hand 711:
I almost decided to quit, having got myself back to level for the evening, but decided that I was on a decent run and should try and maximize it. And, about 30 hands later I pick up the Rockets in the cut-off. I never slow play, even though it was folded round to me, and I make the standard raise to $0.15. The SB makes this $0.45, with about $1.30 behind. Rather than just flat-call I decided to put him all-in and hope his re-raise is with a big enough hand to call - it is, he commits his stack and turns up Kings. It's all but over on the flop - 9d-8c-Ah. I don't even have to sweat the turn and river and my good run has continued.
I decided not to chance my luck any further and get out with a reasonable profit on the evening - not as good as it could have been, but at least it wasn't a loss.
Friday, September 3, 2010
This simply isn't right
I've been cursing my luck a lot lately, and with just cause. Last night I played over 500 hands and having been dealt my fair share of pocket pairs I only hit one single set on the flop (in fact, it was a full house).
Tonight couldn't have been any more different. I seemed to pick up pocket pairs every 4-5 hands and hit sets on about every other time I saw a flop. Problem was I couldn't find an opponent with enough of a hand to challenge me and I made little more than a pittance from each of those hands.
On hand 178 I got my wish:
I pick up pocket 5's in mid position and just limp for $0.05. The SB raises it to $0.20 and I make the call. Bingo, 4h-Ac-5d on the flop and I've made another set. This time, though, there's an Ace and potentially something for my opponent to latch onto.
He checks and I lead out for $0.25, he immediately raises it to $1.25 (I think for a half-second that he may have Aces, but put him on either a big Ace (A-K) or 2-pair). After that size bet there's no way he's folding to a shove - I push, he calls and turns up A-5.
I have him drawing to a 2-outer. The 2d lands on the turn and I start to get a bad feeling - several times when I've got all the money in good the board has run out a straight and I've had to chop. I am now fully expecting to see a 3 on the river - but no, it was much worse than that - Ah. Holy f**king hell - a friggin' 2-outer, a friggin' 19/1 shot - this is a friggin' disgrace.
About 3 years ago I went through a spell like this on Full Tilt. I'd opened my account and put a few quid in. I played for a few months and picked up my first-deposit bonus. I was quite comfortably ahead at the time. Then, all of a sudden it changed. Things like the hand above started happening, I mean seriously improbably hands that were astronomically unlikely. Every time I had Kings, someone else had Aces. If I had aces they'd hit runner-runner straights or flushes. No matter how far ahead I was and what hand I was against the board would find a way of defeating me.
This is happening again now. A few months back I had $5 in my account and playing Rush poker, at exactly the same level, I managed to spin this up to $55. I wasn't getting wildly lucky or sucking out in big hands, I was playing the same way I am now, it was just that whenever I got it in good, it would hold up according to statistically how probable it was. Of course, there were some bad beats and cold-decks, but I played ABC poker and was able to turn a profit in virtually every session.
Now, I can't win a decent hand. Any time I have the nuts I have no action. Every time I get it in ahead, I get caught. I can't remember the last time I was in an all-in situation with Aces and they held-up. I've had Aces cracked more times than I can remember, or else everyone folds pre-flop.
Take this other hand from this evening, for example - Hand 95:
I limp pre-flop with Ac-4c and it is min-raised by the button. I call and the flop comes down 3c-5c-6s. So, I've got an up/down straight and nut flush, as well as straight-flush draw (still only a draw, remember, no made hand yet). I check and he checks back. The 9h on the turn is a blank, as far as I am concerned, so I check again - he checks back.
The 2c hits the river, giving me the Steel Wheel. I put out a small 10c bet and he quickly folds. The best hand I've had in months and the pot size was a whopping $0.38.
I've now done half my Full-Tilt bankroll in just over 2 weeks. After going on a steady $50 profit rise over 2 months, I've shipped $25 in two weeks. And I can safely track 90% of that down to cold-decks and bad beats - this is not bad play.
Poker professionals talk about variance, well if this is it then it better turn around ASAP or my time on Full Tilt will be coming to an end very shortly.
Tonight couldn't have been any more different. I seemed to pick up pocket pairs every 4-5 hands and hit sets on about every other time I saw a flop. Problem was I couldn't find an opponent with enough of a hand to challenge me and I made little more than a pittance from each of those hands.
On hand 178 I got my wish:
I pick up pocket 5's in mid position and just limp for $0.05. The SB raises it to $0.20 and I make the call. Bingo, 4h-Ac-5d on the flop and I've made another set. This time, though, there's an Ace and potentially something for my opponent to latch onto.
He checks and I lead out for $0.25, he immediately raises it to $1.25 (I think for a half-second that he may have Aces, but put him on either a big Ace (A-K) or 2-pair). After that size bet there's no way he's folding to a shove - I push, he calls and turns up A-5.
I have him drawing to a 2-outer. The 2d lands on the turn and I start to get a bad feeling - several times when I've got all the money in good the board has run out a straight and I've had to chop. I am now fully expecting to see a 3 on the river - but no, it was much worse than that - Ah. Holy f**king hell - a friggin' 2-outer, a friggin' 19/1 shot - this is a friggin' disgrace.
About 3 years ago I went through a spell like this on Full Tilt. I'd opened my account and put a few quid in. I played for a few months and picked up my first-deposit bonus. I was quite comfortably ahead at the time. Then, all of a sudden it changed. Things like the hand above started happening, I mean seriously improbably hands that were astronomically unlikely. Every time I had Kings, someone else had Aces. If I had aces they'd hit runner-runner straights or flushes. No matter how far ahead I was and what hand I was against the board would find a way of defeating me.
This is happening again now. A few months back I had $5 in my account and playing Rush poker, at exactly the same level, I managed to spin this up to $55. I wasn't getting wildly lucky or sucking out in big hands, I was playing the same way I am now, it was just that whenever I got it in good, it would hold up according to statistically how probable it was. Of course, there were some bad beats and cold-decks, but I played ABC poker and was able to turn a profit in virtually every session.
Now, I can't win a decent hand. Any time I have the nuts I have no action. Every time I get it in ahead, I get caught. I can't remember the last time I was in an all-in situation with Aces and they held-up. I've had Aces cracked more times than I can remember, or else everyone folds pre-flop.
Take this other hand from this evening, for example - Hand 95:
I limp pre-flop with Ac-4c and it is min-raised by the button. I call and the flop comes down 3c-5c-6s. So, I've got an up/down straight and nut flush, as well as straight-flush draw (still only a draw, remember, no made hand yet). I check and he checks back. The 9h on the turn is a blank, as far as I am concerned, so I check again - he checks back.
The 2c hits the river, giving me the Steel Wheel. I put out a small 10c bet and he quickly folds. The best hand I've had in months and the pot size was a whopping $0.38.
I've now done half my Full-Tilt bankroll in just over 2 weeks. After going on a steady $50 profit rise over 2 months, I've shipped $25 in two weeks. And I can safely track 90% of that down to cold-decks and bad beats - this is not bad play.Poker professionals talk about variance, well if this is it then it better turn around ASAP or my time on Full Tilt will be coming to an end very shortly.
Seriously, this is starting to get annoying.
It's times like these that severely try your patience. In fact, last night's session almost drove me to a violent outburst, but I stopped myself just before I broke my foot on the fridge.
Hand 18:
I pick up pocket Queens in middle position and make the standard 3xBB raise, to $0.15 - I get 2 callers. The flop of 9s-5h-6c is pretty innocuous, so I lead out trying to make it look like a c-bet. The player behind me shoves all-in for about $1.20 and I snap-call. His pocket 6's had turned into a flopped set.
O.K. It's early doors and I at least I haven't gone broke!
Hand 62:
I manage to see a free flop from the BB, with 8-10, off. There's a couple of other limpers, but no action. I flop top pair on a flushy-straighty 5d-8d-6c board so I check and it is checked around. The 8s on the turn gives me trips, so I put out a small bet that gets only one caller. The 8h on the river gives me quads. I bet the pot, hoping to make it look like I'm stealing and he insta-folds. Got the nuts, can't get paid.
Hand 64:
Two hands later I pick up the Rockets. I raise 3xBB from the hijack and the cut-off and BB make the call. Qc-2s-5s hit the flop - given the two spades I lead out with a pot-sized bet and the cut-off pushes all-in for about $5.00. The BB tanks and also makes the call, but he only had about $2.00 left. I am praying the cut-off has A-Q or pocket Kings and I make the call, for my entire stack. He flips up pocket 5's for a flopped set.
That's twice, early on in the session, that I've had a big pocket pair and been called by a small pair that has hit a set on the flop. It's enough to give someone a persecution complex (it was at this point that my foot almost came into swift contact with the fridge as I lashed out in frustration.
Hand 69:
I reloaded and rejoined the game, where I instantly picked up Big Slick from the hijack seat. Again I make the standard 3xBB raise and get two callers. The flop is 3c-6h-8c and I decide to check. It's checked around and the Ks lands on the turn. I lead out for about 2/3 pot, now believing my hand to be the best. The button shoves for about $1.70 and the UTG player makes the call. I have no choice, really, the pot is such that I have to commit the other $1.20. The button shows pocket 8's for yet another flopped set and the UTG has Kc-Qc for top pair and a flush draw.
Having stacked off in the previous hand (for $4.80), I've just offloaded another $2.07 in the very next hand - so down nearly $7.00 in a very short space of time.
Hand 181:
The next 100 or so hands were pretty uneventful (at no point was my entire stack at risk). I eventually won I called a raise with A-J and hit top pair on the flop. My opponent was short-stacked and shoved his last $1.20 into the middle which I called, and it held up. It had taken me 181 hands to win any kind of decent sized pot.
Hand 379:
Yep, that's right, almost 200 hands went by and I had managed to grind my way up to over $6.00. I hadn't seen a premium hand in nearly an hour. Many pocket pairs had come and gone and not a single one had hit a set. I picked up pocket 9's in the hijack seat and called a $0.15 raise from early position. The flop was low (6h-8s-4d) and I have to figure my overpair is good. It goes check-check to me and I lead out for half the pot ($0.30). This is called by the SB, then the early position initial raised re-raises to $1.20, enough to pot the SB all-in. I've got a bad feeling and lay down the 9's quite quickly. SB calls and flips up pocket 5's - however he is no match for the Cowboys his opponent is holding.
That would have been a fantastic spot to have flopped a set.
Hand 522:
Another 150 reasonably uneventful hands go by. I'm dealt several pocket pairs, but no sets materialise. Then, in early position I pick up pocket Queens. I min-raise and get one caller. The flop is Qh-7c-7d - not only is it a set, it's a house. It goes check-check on the flop and the 2c hits the turn. I put out a small bet, perhaps making it look like I'm on a flush draw and this is called. The As hits the river and I am hoping that this has, in some way, hit my opponent. I bet just over 1/2 pot and he insta-folds.
Typical - I've waited 522 hands to be dealt a pair that hits a set on the flop and I can't make a single penny out of it - I mean, I won the absolute minimum. Where's the justice?
Overall, on the night, my buy-ins amounted to a total of $13.00 and I eventually cashed out with $5.38. That's a loss of $7.62 - $7.07 of that can be attributed to 3 hands - 18, 64 & 69.
Hand 18:
I pick up pocket Queens in middle position and make the standard 3xBB raise, to $0.15 - I get 2 callers. The flop of 9s-5h-6c is pretty innocuous, so I lead out trying to make it look like a c-bet. The player behind me shoves all-in for about $1.20 and I snap-call. His pocket 6's had turned into a flopped set.
O.K. It's early doors and I at least I haven't gone broke!
Hand 62:
I manage to see a free flop from the BB, with 8-10, off. There's a couple of other limpers, but no action. I flop top pair on a flushy-straighty 5d-8d-6c board so I check and it is checked around. The 8s on the turn gives me trips, so I put out a small bet that gets only one caller. The 8h on the river gives me quads. I bet the pot, hoping to make it look like I'm stealing and he insta-folds. Got the nuts, can't get paid.
Hand 64:
Two hands later I pick up the Rockets. I raise 3xBB from the hijack and the cut-off and BB make the call. Qc-2s-5s hit the flop - given the two spades I lead out with a pot-sized bet and the cut-off pushes all-in for about $5.00. The BB tanks and also makes the call, but he only had about $2.00 left. I am praying the cut-off has A-Q or pocket Kings and I make the call, for my entire stack. He flips up pocket 5's for a flopped set.
That's twice, early on in the session, that I've had a big pocket pair and been called by a small pair that has hit a set on the flop. It's enough to give someone a persecution complex (it was at this point that my foot almost came into swift contact with the fridge as I lashed out in frustration.
Hand 69:
I reloaded and rejoined the game, where I instantly picked up Big Slick from the hijack seat. Again I make the standard 3xBB raise and get two callers. The flop is 3c-6h-8c and I decide to check. It's checked around and the Ks lands on the turn. I lead out for about 2/3 pot, now believing my hand to be the best. The button shoves for about $1.70 and the UTG player makes the call. I have no choice, really, the pot is such that I have to commit the other $1.20. The button shows pocket 8's for yet another flopped set and the UTG has Kc-Qc for top pair and a flush draw.
Having stacked off in the previous hand (for $4.80), I've just offloaded another $2.07 in the very next hand - so down nearly $7.00 in a very short space of time.
Hand 181:
The next 100 or so hands were pretty uneventful (at no point was my entire stack at risk). I eventually won I called a raise with A-J and hit top pair on the flop. My opponent was short-stacked and shoved his last $1.20 into the middle which I called, and it held up. It had taken me 181 hands to win any kind of decent sized pot.
Hand 379:
Yep, that's right, almost 200 hands went by and I had managed to grind my way up to over $6.00. I hadn't seen a premium hand in nearly an hour. Many pocket pairs had come and gone and not a single one had hit a set. I picked up pocket 9's in the hijack seat and called a $0.15 raise from early position. The flop was low (6h-8s-4d) and I have to figure my overpair is good. It goes check-check to me and I lead out for half the pot ($0.30). This is called by the SB, then the early position initial raised re-raises to $1.20, enough to pot the SB all-in. I've got a bad feeling and lay down the 9's quite quickly. SB calls and flips up pocket 5's - however he is no match for the Cowboys his opponent is holding.
That would have been a fantastic spot to have flopped a set.
Hand 522:
Another 150 reasonably uneventful hands go by. I'm dealt several pocket pairs, but no sets materialise. Then, in early position I pick up pocket Queens. I min-raise and get one caller. The flop is Qh-7c-7d - not only is it a set, it's a house. It goes check-check on the flop and the 2c hits the turn. I put out a small bet, perhaps making it look like I'm on a flush draw and this is called. The As hits the river and I am hoping that this has, in some way, hit my opponent. I bet just over 1/2 pot and he insta-folds.
Typical - I've waited 522 hands to be dealt a pair that hits a set on the flop and I can't make a single penny out of it - I mean, I won the absolute minimum. Where's the justice?
Overall, on the night, my buy-ins amounted to a total of $13.00 and I eventually cashed out with $5.38. That's a loss of $7.62 - $7.07 of that can be attributed to 3 hands - 18, 64 & 69.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
What do I have to do to get a break?
You fold and fold and fold and fold and fold and fold and fold and then you pick up Aces.
I raise, player behind pushes for $2.55 and the player behind tanks for all his time before calling off all his chips. I can't call quick enough - yippee!! A triple-up. No.
I'm up against pocket 9's and As-Js (sooooted, great call!). I'm sweating when two spades hit the flop and am resigned to losing but there are no real straights out there. Then the dagger, 9h on the turn. I can't believe it, a 2-outer and my Aces are drawing thin.
I swear, Full Tilt has moods. If you go on a decent winning streak, as I did a few weeks ago, it has to balance things out and hit you with cold-decks and bad beats. I just hope I still have some bankroll left when this one passes.
I raise, player behind pushes for $2.55 and the player behind tanks for all his time before calling off all his chips. I can't call quick enough - yippee!! A triple-up. No.
I'm up against pocket 9's and As-Js (sooooted, great call!). I'm sweating when two spades hit the flop and am resigned to losing but there are no real straights out there. Then the dagger, 9h on the turn. I can't believe it, a 2-outer and my Aces are drawing thin.
I swear, Full Tilt has moods. If you go on a decent winning streak, as I did a few weeks ago, it has to balance things out and hit you with cold-decks and bad beats. I just hope I still have some bankroll left when this one passes.
Monday, August 30, 2010
How to go bust in 2 hands
After my latest debacle, where I managed to donk of nearly $15, I sat down tonight hoping to double my $5 buy-in and get some of my losses back.
I played over 200 hands before I got myself ahead. most pots were pretty small and I was trading small change for about 45 minutes, but was draining chips and was down to about $3.50.
A couple of decent hands later and I had got myself up to just under $6.00, when this happened.
Hand 282:
Pocket Kings from mid-position I raise 3xBB and get 2 callers. It's an innocuous looking flop, but I lead out and get one caller. The Jack on the turn opens up straight possibilities, so I bet 3/4 pot, hoping to drive him off any draws - no such luck, he calls.
The Queen on the river is another scare card, so I lead out again, and get insta-raised - an overbet. I hesitate for a second and call. Q-T. My God, how do these idiots get so lucky. All he had was overcards on the flop, and drew and up/down on the turn. I'd lost to runner-runner.
Hand 283:
Yes, the very next hand I pick up QQ. There's a series of limpers, so I raise it up, and get called in one spot. The flop is low, 3d-6d-2c so I lead out again -my opponent puts me all-in and I call. He flips up Aces.
That's it - done $6.00 in two hands - one to an idiotic runner-runner straight, when holding KK and the other to a cold-deck holding QQ against AA.
I need to break this bad run as soon as possible.
I played over 200 hands before I got myself ahead. most pots were pretty small and I was trading small change for about 45 minutes, but was draining chips and was down to about $3.50.
A couple of decent hands later and I had got myself up to just under $6.00, when this happened.
Hand 282:
Pocket Kings from mid-position I raise 3xBB and get 2 callers. It's an innocuous looking flop, but I lead out and get one caller. The Jack on the turn opens up straight possibilities, so I bet 3/4 pot, hoping to drive him off any draws - no such luck, he calls.
The Queen on the river is another scare card, so I lead out again, and get insta-raised - an overbet. I hesitate for a second and call. Q-T. My God, how do these idiots get so lucky. All he had was overcards on the flop, and drew and up/down on the turn. I'd lost to runner-runner.
Hand 283:Yes, the very next hand I pick up QQ. There's a series of limpers, so I raise it up, and get called in one spot. The flop is low, 3d-6d-2c so I lead out again -my opponent puts me all-in and I call. He flips up Aces.
That's it - done $6.00 in two hands - one to an idiotic runner-runner straight, when holding KK and the other to a cold-deck holding QQ against AA.
I need to break this bad run as soon as possible.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Nightmare session
I've not blogged for a while, as I have been on a decent run. I took my Full Tilt account from $5.00 up to $55.00 by grinding away at the 0.02c/0.05c Rush 9-handed table. This took about a month, playing about 3-4 times a week.
My average profit per session is about $3-$4 and not once in any of those sessions did I go completely bust (from my initial $5 buy-in). I did reload a couple of times during some sessions when my stack dropped a bit low, but always managed to grind my way back up to level or ahead; until today. My good run definitely came to an end as my bankroll this took a bit of a hit; I managed to dump $12.00 in just under 1 hour - this is how.
Hand 42:
I've picked up the ladies, in mid position. The guy ahead of me min-raises (0.10) and I 3-bet (0.25). It gets folded around and he 4-bets (0.55). I smile to myself and think 'O.K. I've waited over 40 hands without getting involved, have I really run into AA or KK?'.
Perhaps I should have just cut my losses and folded, but I called. The flop came down Ah-Kh-6c and I am easily prepared to dump this hand to any bet, but he checks. I check back and the killer card comes on the turn, Qs. I now have a set and my opponent instantly pushes. He has me covered and it's going to cost me my entire stack to call. I look to the heavens and pray to the poker gods that he has A-K before making the call. No such luck, he flips up Aces and I am down to a 1-outer, the case Queen on the river. Instead, it's the case Ace, making him Quads.
I sit back chuckle to myself and decide that it was inevitable that I was going to run into something like that sooner or later, I'd had a decent run and this was one setback. I'll reload and see if I can get the initial buy-in back.
Hand 81:
I literally fold everything for another 35, or so, hands (including dumping pocket 4's to a raise and reraise - when normally I'd go set-mining). I pick up another pocket pair (5's) and min-raise from the cut-off. The button and SB fold, but the BB 3-bets to 0.25. Out of impatience I decided I am not throwing away another pocket pair and make the call. The flop comes down 5c-5h-Qh, for flopped Quads. Now, can I get paid?
The BB leads out for 40c and I wait about 10 seconds before calling. The turn is the Ad, which I think is a great card, as if he was re-raising pre-flop with a decent Ace (or even pocket Aces) I'm going to get action. I lead out for 0.80 and he insta-folds. He probably had JJ, or something - but I fail to really capitalise on the Quads, only making about $1.20.
Hand 92:
About 10 hands later I pick up AK in mid position. Before I can pop it the UTG pushes his last $1.25 (or so) into the middle. I just flat-call and it is folded around. I'm in great shape as he shows Ad-Js (I was at least expecting a race against a pocket pair, so I am delighted). Not for long, though. The Jack arrives right on the flop and I never catch up.
Hand 134:
I've got As-Qs in the hijack seat and there is one pot-sized raise before me. I make the call and the flop comes down Ac-4h-6c. The initial raiser leads out for half the pot and I decide to push (maybe a bit aggressive, not my usual play, but I couldn't see him having hit 2-pair on that board and I believed my Ace was probably best). He takes an eternity to call and I almost thought he was going to fold. When he does call he turns up Ad-Kd and I couldn't be in much worse shape. Needless to say I don't catch up - another big pot lost.
Hand 153:
Another pocket pair, this time TT in mid-position. There is one min-raise ahead of me and I make the call. 4c-6c-5s board would have been scary if there had been more limpers, but I feel my overpair is good. He leads for 0.10 and I raise to 0.20, he calls. 2c is a scary turn, puttinf straights and flushes out there. He leads for 0.30 and I call. 2s on the river and he makes it 0.40c, again I call believing an overpair is good, and it is, but it wasn't mine - he had Jacks. Again, a player with just that little bit better hand.
Hand 173:
This was my last hand of the session, after this I gave up. I've got Ad-Td in the hijack and I min-raise. This is called from the button and the BB pops it to 0.20. I make the call, as does the button. The flop comes down 9d-jh-8d - as soon as I see it I know all my cash is going in the middle, with up/down straight and nut-flush draws. The BB insta-shoves for about $1.80 and I call, as the button has me covered - but the button also comes along (the pot was a decent size, by now). The 2h is a blank and both the button and I check. The river is Ts, and I have missed all my draws, but spiked 2nd pair on the river, which might be good against A-K, but is losing to any Q.
The BB shows Cowboys, but amazingly we've both been had by the button, with 6c-7c who hit the idiot end of the straight on the river.
I came to the conclusion that I was not going to recover my losses in this session and decided to call it a day. You expect to run into big hands every now and again, as well as missing draws and being out-drawn. But today, every hand that I had more than a couple of big-blinds worth of cash in the pot, I lost. Just gotta shake it off and try and win it back later.
My average profit per session is about $3-$4 and not once in any of those sessions did I go completely bust (from my initial $5 buy-in). I did reload a couple of times during some sessions when my stack dropped a bit low, but always managed to grind my way back up to level or ahead; until today. My good run definitely came to an end as my bankroll this took a bit of a hit; I managed to dump $12.00 in just under 1 hour - this is how.
Hand 42:
I've picked up the ladies, in mid position. The guy ahead of me min-raises (0.10) and I 3-bet (0.25). It gets folded around and he 4-bets (0.55). I smile to myself and think 'O.K. I've waited over 40 hands without getting involved, have I really run into AA or KK?'.
Perhaps I should have just cut my losses and folded, but I called. The flop came down Ah-Kh-6c and I am easily prepared to dump this hand to any bet, but he checks. I check back and the killer card comes on the turn, Qs. I now have a set and my opponent instantly pushes. He has me covered and it's going to cost me my entire stack to call. I look to the heavens and pray to the poker gods that he has A-K before making the call. No such luck, he flips up Aces and I am down to a 1-outer, the case Queen on the river. Instead, it's the case Ace, making him Quads.
I sit back chuckle to myself and decide that it was inevitable that I was going to run into something like that sooner or later, I'd had a decent run and this was one setback. I'll reload and see if I can get the initial buy-in back.
Hand 81:
I literally fold everything for another 35, or so, hands (including dumping pocket 4's to a raise and reraise - when normally I'd go set-mining). I pick up another pocket pair (5's) and min-raise from the cut-off. The button and SB fold, but the BB 3-bets to 0.25. Out of impatience I decided I am not throwing away another pocket pair and make the call. The flop comes down 5c-5h-Qh, for flopped Quads. Now, can I get paid?
The BB leads out for 40c and I wait about 10 seconds before calling. The turn is the Ad, which I think is a great card, as if he was re-raising pre-flop with a decent Ace (or even pocket Aces) I'm going to get action. I lead out for 0.80 and he insta-folds. He probably had JJ, or something - but I fail to really capitalise on the Quads, only making about $1.20.
Hand 92:
About 10 hands later I pick up AK in mid position. Before I can pop it the UTG pushes his last $1.25 (or so) into the middle. I just flat-call and it is folded around. I'm in great shape as he shows Ad-Js (I was at least expecting a race against a pocket pair, so I am delighted). Not for long, though. The Jack arrives right on the flop and I never catch up.
Hand 134:
I've got As-Qs in the hijack seat and there is one pot-sized raise before me. I make the call and the flop comes down Ac-4h-6c. The initial raiser leads out for half the pot and I decide to push (maybe a bit aggressive, not my usual play, but I couldn't see him having hit 2-pair on that board and I believed my Ace was probably best). He takes an eternity to call and I almost thought he was going to fold. When he does call he turns up Ad-Kd and I couldn't be in much worse shape. Needless to say I don't catch up - another big pot lost.
Hand 153:
Another pocket pair, this time TT in mid-position. There is one min-raise ahead of me and I make the call. 4c-6c-5s board would have been scary if there had been more limpers, but I feel my overpair is good. He leads for 0.10 and I raise to 0.20, he calls. 2c is a scary turn, puttinf straights and flushes out there. He leads for 0.30 and I call. 2s on the river and he makes it 0.40c, again I call believing an overpair is good, and it is, but it wasn't mine - he had Jacks. Again, a player with just that little bit better hand.
Hand 173:
This was my last hand of the session, after this I gave up. I've got Ad-Td in the hijack and I min-raise. This is called from the button and the BB pops it to 0.20. I make the call, as does the button. The flop comes down 9d-jh-8d - as soon as I see it I know all my cash is going in the middle, with up/down straight and nut-flush draws. The BB insta-shoves for about $1.80 and I call, as the button has me covered - but the button also comes along (the pot was a decent size, by now). The 2h is a blank and both the button and I check. The river is Ts, and I have missed all my draws, but spiked 2nd pair on the river, which might be good against A-K, but is losing to any Q.
The BB shows Cowboys, but amazingly we've both been had by the button, with 6c-7c who hit the idiot end of the straight on the river.
I came to the conclusion that I was not going to recover my losses in this session and decided to call it a day. You expect to run into big hands every now and again, as well as missing draws and being out-drawn. But today, every hand that I had more than a couple of big-blinds worth of cash in the pot, I lost. Just gotta shake it off and try and win it back later.
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