This simply isn't right

I've been cursing my luck a lot lately, and with just cause. Last night I played over 500 hands and having been dealt my fair share of pocket pairs I only hit one single set on the flop (in fact, it was a full house).

Tonight couldn't have been any more different. I seemed to pick up pocket pairs every 4-5 hands and hit sets on about every other time I saw a flop. Problem was I couldn't find an opponent with enough of a hand to challenge me and I made little more than a pittance from each of those hands.

On hand 178 I got my wish:

I pick up pocket 5's in mid position and just limp for $0.05. The SB raises it to $0.20 and I make the call. Bingo, 4h-Ac-5d on the flop and I've made another set. This time, though, there's an Ace and potentially something for my opponent to latch onto.

He checks and I lead out for $0.25, he immediately raises it to $1.25 (I think for a half-second that he may have Aces, but put him on either a big Ace (A-K) or 2-pair). After that size bet there's no way he's folding to a shove - I push, he calls and turns up A-5.

I have him drawing to a 2-outer. The 2d lands on the turn and I start to get a bad feeling - several times when I've got all the money in good the board has run out a straight and I've had to chop. I am now fully expecting to see a 3 on the river - but no, it was much worse than that - Ah. Holy f**king hell - a friggin' 2-outer, a friggin' 19/1 shot - this is a friggin' disgrace.


About 3 years ago I went through a spell like this on Full Tilt. I'd opened my account and put a few quid in. I played for a few months and picked up my first-deposit bonus. I was quite comfortably ahead at the time. Then, all of a sudden it changed. Things like the hand above started happening, I mean seriously improbably hands that were astronomically unlikely. Every time I had Kings, someone else had Aces. If I had aces they'd hit runner-runner straights or flushes. No matter how far ahead I was and what hand I was against the board would find a way of defeating me.

This is happening again now. A few months back I had $5 in my account and playing Rush poker, at exactly the same level, I managed to spin this up to $55. I wasn't getting wildly lucky or sucking out in big hands, I was playing the same way I am now, it was just that whenever I got it in good, it would hold up according to statistically how probable it was. Of course, there were some bad beats and cold-decks, but I played ABC poker and was able to turn a profit in virtually every session.

Now, I can't win a decent hand. Any time I have the nuts I have no action. Every time I get it in ahead, I get caught. I can't remember the last time I was in an all-in situation with Aces and they held-up. I've had Aces cracked more times than I can remember, or else everyone folds pre-flop.

Take this other hand from this evening, for example - Hand 95:

I limp pre-flop with Ac-4c and it is min-raised by the button. I call and the flop comes down 3c-5c-6s. So, I've got an up/down straight and nut flush, as well as straight-flush draw (still only a draw, remember, no made hand yet). I check and he checks back. The 9h on the turn is a blank, as far as I am concerned, so I check again - he checks back.

The 2c hits the river, giving me the Steel Wheel. I put out a small 10c bet and he quickly folds. The best hand I've had in months and the pot size was a whopping $0.38.

I've now done half my Full-Tilt bankroll in just over 2 weeks. After going on a steady $50 profit rise over 2 months, I've shipped $25 in two weeks. And I can safely track 90% of that down to cold-decks and bad beats - this is not bad play.

Poker professionals talk about variance, well if this is it then it better turn around ASAP or my time on Full Tilt will be coming to an end very shortly.